Balibey, Mesut; Akdi, Yilmaz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisindeki 02.01.2013 ile 11.12.2018 dönemi günlük (5 işgünü) döviz kurlarındaki döngüler, periodogramlar yardımıyla belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır.Çalışmada günlük Türk lirası karşısında Dolar kapanış (Xt) ve Euro kapanış (Yt) değerleridikkate alınmıştır. Analizler sonucunda bu iki serinin de aynı periyodlarda hareket ettiğigözlenmiştir. Günlük döviz kurlarının durağanlığı standart birim kök testlerinin yanındaperiodogram tabanlı birim kök testi ile de sınanmış ve her iki serinin de birinci derecedenbütünleşik olduğu gözlenmiştir. Birinci derece fark serilerinde 4, 6 ve 7 günlük periyodlargözlenmiştir.

İncele

Kayış, Aliye; Balibey, Mesut; Akdi, Yilmaz

Natural gas and oil prices, which have an important place in the world energy markets, are among the fundamental inputs that are very important in terms of establishing sustainable economic policies. When these two input prices are analyzed cyclically, it is thought that any periodicity will be important in terms of economic policies and academic studies. These two input prices, which are important indicators of the industrial development levels of the countries, were investigated in the interactions and relations between each other. In this study, the periodic components of the monthly average gross oil and natural gas prices of the period 2004: 01-2018: 12 were investigated. The data in the study were compiled on the basis of monthly averages by compiling the prices in the international markets (end of day closing values as of 00:00). Data were obtained from Matriksdata data provider company by using a data terminal subscription. In addition to the standard unit root tests, the unit was tested with unit root tests based on periodograms and both series were not stable. Since both series are not stationary, first-order difference series are used for the determination of periodic components. While no periodic component was observed in natural gas prices, the prices of the crude oil prices were 36 months (three years), 60 months (five years), 45 months and 90 months. Although both series were integrated in the first degree, there was no long-term stable correlation between the two series. It can be said that these two series have different periodic structures.

İncele