Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ1A comparative framework for criticality assessment of strategic raw materials in Turkey
Göçmen Polat, Elifcan; Yücesan, Melih; Gül, Muhammet
The rapid development of innovative technologies, population growth, shifting resource management patterns, and decarbonization challenges are expected to increase the demand for raw materials labeled as critical in the following years. The increasing concerns have led to evaluate the critical raw materials (CRMs) with high economic importance and supply risk. In this context, this paper aims to develop a conceptual methodology to identify CRMs in Turkey. The methodology integrates a multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDM) to provide the raw material criticality matrix regarding various criteria, the EU (European Union) method, which represents supply risk and economic importance indicators, and the time series analysis method, in which dynamic evaluation of materials over time instead of the static indicators. We first provide a Bayesian Best-Worst method (B-BWM) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) based model for the criticality matrix, which enables evaluations of participated experts to be combined to reveal the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria from a probabilistic point of view without loss of knowledge. The main and sub-criteria include supply risk and economic importance, which are frequently studied in the literature, but also environment, price, secondary production, and socio-economic indicators are evaluated in the criticality matrix. Then, exponential smoothing forecast, one of the Time Series Analysis models, which determine the element criticality in the perspective of future years with the data of import figures of Turkey, is superior to the other models. Finally, with some modifications, the EU criticality methodology is used to quantify the raw materials regarding each material associated with the sector applications and their value-added and supply disruptions. Thus, a comprehensive criticality list integrating the results of the three mentioned methods is important because Turkey's raw materials characterize many sectors. The findings should also interest practitioners and researchers as the detailed assessment of raw material criticality ensures a sufficient database for future studies.
AtıfScopus24WoS14
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2021Scopus SJRQ1Extension of FEMA and SMUG models with Bayesian best-worst method for disaster risk reduction
Yanilmaz, Sumeyye; Baskak, Dilber; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
Turkey is one of the countries that face many natural and man-made disasters. The entire geography of Turkey is affected by these disasters and the secondary disasters resulting from them. Tunceli is located in the Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey and is a disaster-prone region. Therefore, it is important to carry out an adaptable hazard analysis for the region and support the national disaster risk reduction struggle. In this study, a comprehensive disaster hazard analysis was conducted for Tunceli province, and potential mitigation measures were discussed. As methodological background, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and SMUG (Seriousness Manageability Urgency Growth) models, which are well-known methods, were extended under the Bayesian Best-Worst Method (BWM). Bayesian BWM is a pairwise comparison-based multi-criteria decision-making method that takes a probabilistic view of the experts' group decision without losing information, providing less pairwise comparison and higher consistency. Nine different disaster hazards for the Tunceli region are prioritized by the proposed approach. Initially, weights of the risk parameters in FEMA and SMUG and the priority values of disaster hazards based on each parameter were calculated. Then, ranking orders were determined. In addition, more precise evaluations were made for the results obtained with the credal ranking graphs. Some comparative studies were also included in the study to test the solidity of the approach. According to the results, both models showed that the top priority hazard for Tunceli is “earthquake”. Also, flood, mass movement, terrorism, and epidemics are hazards with higher priority to be taken into account. Considering the final preference values of disaster hazards for Tunceli province, the first three hazards for the FEMA model are earthquake with 0.192, mass movement with 0.141 and flood with 0.114, respectively. In the SMUG model, earthquake with 0.194, flood with 0.129 and epidemic disease with 0.120 are in the first three places.
AtıfScopus35WoS25OpenAlex32İncele