A Metric-Driven Evaluation Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prognosis with Quantified Uncertainty

This paper introduces a novel metric-driven evaluation framework for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prognosis in rotating machinery, featuring robust uncertainty quantification. Accurate RUL prediction is vital for optimizing maintenance and preventing failures, but existing methods often struggle with complex nonlinear degradation or lack reliable uncertainty estimates. Our proposed framework integrates a probabilistic Deep State Space Model (DSSM) with a variational inference approach to model complex, non-linear degradation trends and inherent aleatoric uncertainty. A key innovation is the use of the Slime Mold Algorithm (SMA) for efficient hyperparameter optimization, ensuring maximum accuracy. Furthermore, an online adaptation mechanism, governed by a heuristic reinforcement learning agent, allows the model to continuously update its knowledge and adapt to concept drift in real-time. Experimental validation on the IMS bearing dataset demonstrates superior RUL prediction accuracy, evidenced by the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 8.1829 cycles, and a PICP of 0.59416. This dual capability makes the framework highly suitable for real-world predictive maintenance, enhancing safety and reliability.