An Investigation of the Variability of Short-Term Drought with SPEI-Based Severity, Duration and Magnitude Parameters in a Transboundary Basin

Climate change-induced variability in the water budget leads to significant drought events. In this study, severity, duration, and magnitude parameters obtained from 1-month and 3-month series of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to investigate short-term drought from different perspectives. The lower part of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, which is a transboundary basin, was preferred as the study area within the borders of Türkiye. In this study, monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data for the period 1963–2021 were used. Both graphical (Şen Innovative Trend Analysis) and statistical (Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s Rho, Sen’s Slope Estimator) trend analysis methods were applied to detect, categorize, and analyze the variability of drought. The Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram (CWTSD) method, which offers both graphical and statistical trend analysis capabilities, was preferred to enhance consistency and facilitate comparison of results. According to the findings, more severe droughts are observed in the eastern part of the basin compared to the western part. Across the basin, severity and magnitude are decreasing, while duration is increasing. The increase in duration indicates that droughts are shifting from short-term to long-term periods. This situation is of great importance in terms of planning agricultural strategies.