Forecasting Monthly Sales of White Goods Using Hybrid Arimax and Ann Models

In this study, hybrid ARIMAX-ANN and SARIMAX-ANN sales forecasting modelsare proposed for a white goods wholesaler. White goods industry which is one of the durable goodssub-sector includes washing machines, dishwashers, refrigerators and small home appliances. Inmaking forecasts, 46-month sales data of a white goods wholesaler are used. Factors influencingsales such as exchange rate, holidays, consumer confidence index (CCI), producer price index(PPI) and residential sales of the region are used as explanatory variables. The study contributesto the current literature by some aspects. First, there is no attempts applying the ARIMAX-ANNand SARIMAX-ANN hybrid models to forecast sales data in white goods industry. Second, thehybrid models combine the advantages of times series and ANN models. ARIMAX models areinsufficient to solve complex nonlinear problems. On the other hand, ANN is sufficient to explainnonlinear relationships. On conclusion, use of hybrid models can increase the accuracy of themodels.