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- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Analyzing Failures In Wind–Solar Hybrid Energy Systems Using a Fuzzy-Based BWM-MARCOS Approach: Challenges and Solutions
Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
The reliability of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) depends heavily on the identification and management of potential failure modes. This study employs a fuzzy-based BWM-MARCOS approach to systematically analyze and prioritize failure modes within wind–solar hybrid systems. The model aims to prioritize the failures considering four important risk parameters: (1) severity of the failure on system, staff, and failure, (2) failure occurrence chance, (3) effort and ease of detecting the cause of the failure, and (4) economic impact of the failure. In this context, four key risk indicators were evaluated to rank failures, revealing that SP1 (cell damage), ESS1 (battery degradation), and WT11 (battery fire) are the most critical due to their potential impact on system operations. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of these rankings under varying parameter weights. Additionally, cross-method validation using fuzzy TOPSIS, SAW, and MARCOS demonstrated high correlation coefficients, underscoring the reliability of the results. Tailored mitigation strategies, including advanced diagnostics, durable materials, and robust monitoring systems, are proposed to address these critical failures. While the current methodology applies to various HRES configurations, future research should incorporate real-world operational data and machine learning techniques to enhance predictive capabilities and dynamic risk management.
AtıfScopus7WoS7OpenAlex8
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ2A fuzzy Bayesian network risk assessment model for analyzing the causes of slow-down processes in two-stroke ship main engines
Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet; Demirel, Hakan
This paper presents a risk assessment approach for analyzing the causes of malfunction-related main engine slowdowns. A fuzzy Bayesian Network-based methodology is used to assess the factors contributing to the engine’s slow-down processes. The model addresses the complexity and uncertainty inherent in maritime operations with fuzzy sets where numerous interrelated factors can affect engine performance, and the Bayesian network to capture probabilistic dependencies. It considers various potential causes of the slow-down of ship engines that the manufacturer provides. Results demonstrate the model's ability to identify the influential factors leading to engine slow-down events and quantify the overall risk. Integrating fuzzy logic and Bayesian Networks comprehensively assesses relevant risk factors. It enables maritime stakeholders to manage engine performance and improves operational safety proactively. Findings can inform decision-makers, enabling the implementation of targeted maintenance strategies, fuel quality control measures, and crew training programs in the maritime industry.
AtıfScopus19WoS17OpenAlex18İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ1A comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths using fuzzy rule-based Bayesian network and multi-attribute decision-making
Demirel, Hakan; Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
Mooring operations -especially at hydrocarbon berths- are critical components of the marine and offshore industry. They usually involve securing the berths of ships carrying valuable cargo and ensuring the safety of personnel, assets, and the environment. For this purpose, a comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring operations at hydrocarbon berths is proposed in this study. This framework helps evaluate risks using a rule-based Bayesian network. In the assessment of mooring risks, four risk parameters of severity, occurrence, detection, and maintenance are considered to construct the BN structure of each mooring risk. These parameters are weighted with the aid of the fuzzy Best Worst Method. Hereafter, a fuzzy rule-based system is constructed by incorporating BN to determine a risk priority score. The framework also develops mitigation strategies to maintain effective risk management for safe and secure maritime transportation. Sensitivity analyzes and comparison studies were conducted to test the validity of the proposed comprehensive risk management framework. The study reveals that the most critical risk is associated with Technical Failures (Q1) in the cluster pertaining to the automation of Quick Release Hooks. This risk stems from technical malfunctions in automation systems, encompassing sensors and control mechanisms, potentially resulting in the unintended release of mooring lines. The second highest priority risk is linked to Human Error (M1) in the mooring risks cluster, attributed to human errors such as inadequate training, miscommunication, and procedural mistakes during mooring operations, posing risks of accidents and damage to ships and infrastructure. Conversely, the least significant risk, Redundancy (Q5), focuses on redundancy. This risk is associated with automation and underscores the importance of implementing redundancy mechanisms to ensure the safe continuation of mooring operations in the face of system failures. In conclusion, the proposed comprehensive risk assessment framework offers a systematic approach to evaluate and prioritize mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths. The study’s findings emphasize the critical importance of addressing technical malfunctions in the automation of Quick Release Hooks and human errors during mooring operations. By identifying the most significant risks and developing mitigation strategies, this framework contributes to enhancing the safety and security of maritime transportation, particularly in the context of hydrocarbon berths.
AtıfScopus11WoS11OpenAlex13İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2022Scopus SJRQ1An interval type-2 fuzzy enhanced best–worst method for the evaluation of ship diesel generator failures
Yucesan, Melih; Başhan, Veysi; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
The environmental destruction in our century necessitates the implementation of more safety-based rules and the strict implementation of failure analysis, especially in the maritime sector. The generator system, considered the ship's powerhouse, is expected to be ready and well-maintained for efficient and safe operations. This study proposes a new methodology to analyze ship generator failures. This method includes a version of the best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method enriched with interval type-2 fuzzy logic (IT2FE-BWM). Enrichment with interval type-2 fuzzy numbers shows that a parameter about how much the decision-maker trusts the pairwise comparisons are added to the model. Thus, a more sensitive methodology has been proposed for the confidence of the maritime sector evaluators. A solid decision mechanism has been developed to prioritize generator failures. In addition, a comparison study with some other BWM derivatives and a creative sensitivity analysis were added to this study and its robustness was tested.
AtıfScopus25OpenAlex24İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2022Scopus SJRQ2Health, safety, and environmental failure evaluation by hybridizing fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods for maritime scrubber systems
Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
Many shipping companies have started using scrubbers in their fleet to eliminate sulfur emissions from ships, per IMO (International Maritime Organization) rules. Before and during the scrubbers’ selection, the scrubbers’ operational failures have also started to appear and cause serious concerns. In this study, classified scrubber types are explained and open type, closed type, and hybrid scrubber systems are evaluated. To contribute to this gap in the literature, scrubber failures were identified, five experts with different perspectives were consulted, and the most common and critical malfunctions were evaluated with the fuzzy best–worst method (F-BWM) and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (F-TOPSIS). F-BWM was used to determine the importance weights of the risk parameters used in evaluating failures since it provides fewer comparisons among pairwise comparison–based decision-making methods and a more consistent judgment in the evaluation. F-TOPSIS, on the other hand, was used to determine the final priority scores of the scrubber failures, taking into account the risk parameter weights obtained in the first stage. It has been preferred due to its easy to useness and based on its closeness to the ideal solution and applicability to risk and failure analysis problems. Considering all different systems in general, important issues such as collection efficiency, sulfur emission problem, abrasion, leakages, pump failures, heat exchanger failures, air fan sealing failures, sensors and failures in monitoring the whole system have been investigated. Results show that too high axial velocity for separator and flooded separator, too high solids concentration in recirculation liquid (SF2), piping leakages (SF5), poor quality or inappropriate consumables and chemicals (SF11), and feed circulation pump problems (SF6) are found to be the most important problems among thirteen failures.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2020Scopus SJRQ2A novel risk evaluation approach for frequently encountered risks in ship engine rooms
Başhan, Veysi; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
The purpose of this study is to evaluate risks which are frequently encountered in the engine room on-board. In this context, twenty common risks are assessed using the neutrosophic analytic hierarchy process (N-AHP) and trapezoidal fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TrF-TOPSIS). In maritime risk evaluation, since it is frequently required the linguistic assessment of decision-makers to achieve a robust risk assessment tool, neutrosophic sets and fuzzy sets are used together in this study. Neutrosophic sets represent real-world problems effectively by considering all aspects of decision-making situations, (i.e. truthiness, indeterminacy, and falsity). Therefore, AHP is integrated with neutrosophic sets to assign weights of risk parameters initially. Then, the encountered risks are prioritized by TrF-TOPSIS. Finally, preventative actions for the risks have been discussed. In conclusion of the study, it is shown that skin exposure to the fuels/oils, exposure to chemicals and exposure to high pressure and temperature liquids are the most important risks through the engine room on-board. This study both emphasizes the importance of preventing damage to crew in the risk assessment of ship engine rooms and aims to increase the level of safety control and minimize the potential environmental impacts of a ship's damage.
AtıfScopus17WoS13OpenAlex14İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2020Scopus SJRQ2An FMEA-based TOPSIS approach under single valued neutrosophic sets for maritime risk evaluation: the case of ship navigation safety
Başhan, Veysi; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
As in terrestrial facilities, safety is one of the most important issue in ships. Vessels navigating in many parts of the world face many different, tough and dangerous navigational risks. In this context, twenty-three fundamental risks which are frequently encountered in ship navigation were considered in this study and examined by an FMEA-based TOPSIS approach under single valued neutrosophic sets. Because of the lack of data in the literature, the opinions of the experts (Masters) who have many years of experience in the sector were taken. As a result of the study, extreme weather conditions, injury of crew, loss of input of sensory equipment (depth, gyro, speed etc.), struck by ropes, exposure to high speed machineries under high pressures, loss of maneuverability are very important among these risks. Considering these risks, corrective-preventive action plans and managerial implications for ship navigation have been presented. Consequently, the results of this study have an important warning and solution recommendation regarding ship navigation risks.
AtıfScopus123WoS96OpenAlex113İncele