Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2021Scopus SJRQ2Metaheuristic Approaches Integrated with ANN in Forecasting Daily Emergency Department Visits
Pekel, Engin; Gul, Muhammet; Celik, Erkan; Yousefi, Samuel
The overall service quality level of Emergency Departments (EDs) can be improved by accurate forecasting of patient visits. Accordingly, this study aims to evaluate the use of three metaheuristic approaches integrated with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in forecasting daily ED visits. To do this, five performance measures are used for evaluating the accuracy of the proposed approaches, including Bayesian ANN, Genetic Algorithm-based ANN (GA-ANN), and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm-based ANN (PSO-ANN). The outputs of this study show that the PSO-ANN model provides the most dominant performance in both the training and testing process. The lowest error is obtained with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.3%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 42.797, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 2499.340, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 49.933, and R-squared (R2) of 0.824 on the training dataset. The lowest error with an MAPE of 6.0%, MAE of 40.888, MSE of 2839.998, RMSE of 53.292, and R2 of 0.791 is also obtained on the testing process.
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İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2021Scopus SJRQ1Systems failure analysis using Z-number theory-based combined compromise solution and full consistency method
Yousefi, Samuel; Valipour, Mahsa; Gul, Muhammet
Financial and time constraints force managers to put limited failure modes in priority to implement corrective and preventive actions. Thus, how prioritization can be done more constructively is of particular importance. This study aims to introduce an improved Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique based on an extension of the Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) method and the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM) to assess and prioritize failures in a production process. These developed methods called Z-CoCoSo and Z-FUCOM rely on the Z-number theory. They can consider uncertainty and reliability simultaneously in determining the weights of risk factors and the value of these factors in the studied problem. The proposed approach can cover some shortcomings of the conventional FMEA technique employed in identifying potential failures before their occurrence. Applying this approach enables experts to consider different weights for risk factors and uncertainty in the risk assessment process and provides them with a reliable ranking with high separability. Implementing the introduced approach for a real case study in the automotive parts industry has been compared with FMEA and other existent versions of the used methods demonstrating its reliable prioritization.
AtıfScopus57WoS56OpenAlex57İncele