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- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Earthquake Hazard in Urban Areas of Bursa Province: Paleosismological Properties of the Ulubat, Bursa and İnegöl Active Faults
Karabacak, Volkan; Sançar, Taylan
This study provides a detailed mapping of active fault segments in Bursa and its surrounding regions, along with a comprehensive analysis of seismic behavior derived from paleoseismological data. As one of T & uuml;rkiyes' strategic economic centers with a dense population and industrial infrastructure, Bursa requires a holistic seismic risk assessment for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation. Paleoseismological analyses of the eastern segment of the Ulubat Fault indicate that it has been in a seismic quiescence period for approximately 1855 years. This prolonged period of inactivity highlights the potential for a large earthquake in the future around the Nil & uuml;fer Region of Bursa. Trench investigations conducted in Bursa city-centre reveal that the Bursa Fault has produced at least six surface ruptures over the past 12000 years, recurring approximately every 2000 years. Additionally, trench studies on the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault indicate that the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault has produced at least five surface ruptures over the last 12000 years, with the most recent major earthquake occurring more than 2500 years ago. Obtained results emphasize the potential for the Bursa and & Idot;neg & ouml;l faults to rupture simultaneously or in close succession, possibly triggering one another. Thus, the surface rupture caused by the 1855 Bursa earthquake is evaluated to have potentially triggered stress accumulation along the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault. This situation reveals a high probability of a surface-rupturing earthquake (M=6.2-6.9) occurring at any time on the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault, after 2500 years of seismic silence. Overall, these findings underscore the critical role of the faults in Bursa and its surroundings within the regional seismicity. In particular, the potential for sequential ruptures along the Bursa and & Idot;neg & ouml;l faults presents a significant earthquake hazard. This comprehensive analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the seismotectonic dynamics of the region, providing valuable insights for seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation efforts.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2021Paleoseismicity of the Ulubat Fault: Inferences on Seismic Behaviour of the Southern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, South Marmara; [Ulubat Fayı’nın Paleosismisitesi: Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu Güney Kolunun Deprem Davranışı Üzerine Çıkarımlar, Güney Marmara]
Karabacak, Volkan; Sancar, Taylan; Selcuk, Azad Saglam; Buyukdeniz, Yusuf
This article presents the results of the first paleoseismological studies conducted along the Ulubat Fault and their inferences on the earthquake behavior of the south branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The Ulubat Fault is divided into 3 segments according to its geometric characteristics and paleoseismological behavior. Along the fault segments, at least 6 paleoearthquake event have been distinguished in the last 16 thousand years with paleoseismolgic fault excavations. The dating results correlated with the historical records show that the latest surface ruptures along the Ulubat Fault occurred with the earthquakes of <161/170 AD (I=IX), 1143 AD (M=6.0) and 1855 AD (M=7.3), respectively, and migrated to the west. Although it does not provide sufficient statistical evaluation opportunity, the paleoseismological data presented in this study proves that the segments of the NAFZ south branch do not present characteristic earthquake behavior in terms of recurrence period and this irregularity may be due to the multi-fragment geometry of the fault zone in the region.
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