Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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Yazarlar

• Alofaysan, Hind(1)
• Barut, Abdulkadir(1)
• Hudaverdi, Burcu(1)
• Peker, Ayse Esra(1)
• Radulescu, Magdalena(1)
• Susam, Selim Orhun(1)
• Utku, Anil(1)

• MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/1136
  Quantifying agricultural resilience under climate variability: a data-driven climate resilience index for European cereal systems

  Utku, Anil; Radulescu, Magdalena; Barut, Abdulkadir; Alofaysan, Hind

  Climate variability and extreme weather events pose an increasingly serious threat to agricultural productivity in Europe. Although many studies have focused on the mean yield response to climate change, relatively few have attempted to offer a comprehensive, multi-dimensional view of agricultural resilience, separating long-term productivity trends from short-term climate-induced fluctuations. In this paper, a data-driven Climate Resilience Index is proposed to assess the resilience of European cereal systems under climate stress. Annual yield time series are decomposed into trend and anomaly components to identify interannual deviations driven by climate variability. Machine learning and deep learning algorithms, including RF, CatBoost, CNN, LSTM, TCN, and a TCN-LSTM hybrid model, are used to assess the predictive validity of climate extreme indices and persistence patterns. Among the evaluated models, the TCN-LSTM architecture achieved the highest predictive performance with 0.8347 R2, outperforming standalone temporal and ensemble-based models. The PCA-based exposure framework explained 68.4% of the total climate variability within the first principal component, indicating a highly concentrated climate-stress structure. Feature importance analyses further revealed that lagged yield anomalies and rolling volatility indicators were the dominant predictors of resilience dynamics. The findings show that temporal models perform better than traditional ensemble methods, emphasizing the significance of multi-year recovery mechanisms in anomaly evolution. To provide a consistent measure of exposure, principal component analysis is used to reduce correlated climate indicators into a multi-dimensional climate stress index. The CRI captures these three essential elements: climate exposure, yield variability, and recovery. The results at the country level show substantial variability across Europe, indicating that while exposure intensity is important, recovery dynamics are also critical to understanding resilience. The results also show that there are structurally distinct resilience profiles, and robustness tests indicate that country rankings are not sensitive to different weights and recovery functions. The results clearly show that recovery and adaptive capacity are critical to agricultural sustainability amid growing climate uncertainty. The CRI developed in this paper provides a clear, empirically valid framework for comparing resilience in agricultural systems.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ2/r/munzur/913
  Risk Assessment via Hazard Scenario in Cereal Production Under Rising CO

  Susam, Selim Orhun; Peker, Ayse Esra; Hudaverdi, Burcu

  Global food security has been seriously threatened by air pollution and climate change. The impact of CO on crop output is complicated because of its interactions with temperature, nutrient availability, and other pollutants, even though it is necessary for photosynthesis. This study develops a copula-based hazard modeling framework to assess how increasing CO concentrations affect cereal production risk across multiple crops. By integrating hazard scenario analysis with localized dependence measures, we estimate both failure probabilities and dynamic associations between CO emissions and cereal yields. A novel localized version of Kendall’s implemented via a Bernstein copula approximation, enables flexible modeling of heterogeneous and nonlinear dependence structures. As the relationship between CO emissions and crop-specific yields changes in both density and direction, it may indicate asymmetries or nonlinearities that are missed by measures of global dependence. Empirical results reveal distinct crop-specific responses. While CO levels enhance yields for rice, millet, and sugar beet, they reduce or destabilize production for rye and lentil, indicating asymmetric sensitivities. Failure probabilities increase with the time horizon, reflecting the accumulation of climate-related production risk. The findings emphasize the significance of integrating probabilistic hazard modeling into climate-resilient agricultural planning and food security policies, as crop-specific risk exposure has increased in recent time periods.

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