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- MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ2Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Earthquake Time Prediction
Utku, Anıl; Akcayol, Muhammet Ali
Earthquakes are one of the most dangerous natural disasters that have constantly threatened humanity in the last decade. Therefore, it is extremely important to take preventive measures against earthquakes. Time estimation in these dangerous events is becoming more specific, especially in order to minimize the damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, a hybrid deep learning model is proposed to predict the time of the next earthquake to potentially occur. The developed CNN+GRU model was compared with RF, ARIMA, CNN and GRU. These models were tested using an earthquake dataset. Experimental results show that the CNN+GRU model performs better than others according to MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE metrics. This study highlights the importance of predicting earthquakes, providing a way to help take more effective precautions against earthquakes and potentially minimize loss of life and material damage. This study should be considered an important step in the methods used to predict future earthquakes and supports efforts to reduce earthquake risks.
AtıfScopus6WoS5TR Dizin4
İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ1Deep learning based hybrid prediction model for predicting the spread of COVID-19 in the world's most populous countries
Utku, Anil
COVID-19 has a disease and health phenomenon and has sociological and economic adverse effects. Accurate prediction of the spread of the epidemic will help in the planning of health management and the development of economic and sociological action plans. In the literature, there are many studies to analyse and predict the spread of COVID-19 in cities and countries. However, there is no study to predict and analyse the cross-country spread in the world's most populous countries. In this study, it was aimed to predict the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The motivation of this study is to reduce the workload of health workers, take preventive measures and optimize health processes by predicting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. A hybrid deep learning model was developed to predict and analyse COVID-19 cross-country spread and a case study was carried out for the world's most populous countries. The developed model was tested extensively using RMSE, MAE and R2. The experimental results showed that the developed model was more successful in predicting and analysis of COVID-19 cross-country spread in the world's most populous countries than LR, RF, SVM, MLP, CNN, GRU, LSTM and base CNN-GRU. In the developed model, CNN performs convolution and pooling operations to extract spatial features from the input data. GRU provides learning of long-term and non-linear relationships inferred by CNN. The developed hybrid model was more successful than the other models compared, as it enabled the effective features of the CNN and GRU models to be used together. The prediction and analysis of the cross-country spread of COVID-19 in the world's most populated countries can be presented as a novelty of this study.
AtıfScopus23WoS20OpenAlex31
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