Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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Yazarlar

• Ates, Erdem(2)
• Ateş, Erdem(1)
• Aydin, Üzeyir(1)
• Öztürk, Hasan(1)

• MakaleYalnız künye2025Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/4841
  Trade openness, inequality, and internal conflict: global evidence from a dynamic panel analysis

  Ates, Erdem

  PurposeThis study investigates how trade openness influences internal conflict, emphasizing the moderating role of income inequality. It aims to clarify whether the benefits of globalization translate into domestic peace or exacerbate internal unrest when income distribution is unequal.Design/methodology/approachUsing an unbalanced panel of 126 countries from 1999 to 2022, the study applies a dynamic panel data framework based on two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators. This approach accounts for potential endogeneity, autocorrelation, and heterogeneity across countries. Robustness tests include alternative lag structures and difference GMM estimations.FindingsEmpirical results reveal that trade openness and GDP per capita significantly reduce the risk of internal conflict, supporting the liberal peace hypothesis. In contrast, higher income inequality, inflation, democracy index, market concentration, and external conflict increase conflict risk. The findings confirm the embedded liberalism thesis, indicating that trade promotes peace only when accompanied by redistributive domestic policies that mitigate inequality.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is subject to several limitations. While it offers robust empirical findings, the use of panel data limits the ability to capture country-specific dynamics and institutional nuances. Moreover, internal conflict is a multifaceted phenomenon influenced by non-economic factors not fully addressed in the model. Despite these limitations, the results provide valuable insights for policymakers, suggesting that trade openness alone may not ensure peace without addressing domestic inequality. Future research may benefit from disaggregated analyses or mixed-method approaches to better understand the country-level mechanisms linking globalization and internal conflict.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that policymakers should complement liberalization policies with inclusive welfare measures and skill-based interventions to ensure that trade benefits are broadly shared, preventing distributional grievances that may lead to instability.Social implicationsThis study highlights the social risks of uneven globalization. While trade can promote economic growth, its benefits must be distributed fairly to prevent societal fragmentation. High income inequality can erode trust, deepen social divisions, and increase the likelihood of unrest. Furthermore, democratization without strong institutions may fail to foster cohesion, especially in developing societies. These findings stress the importance of inclusive development policies that promote both economic opportunity and social equity to ensure long-term internal stability and reduce the risk of conflict.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by integrating trade theory and conflict analysis within a dynamic panel framework, offering one of the few cross-country empirical examinations of how trade openness, inequality, and internal conflict interact over time.

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  AtıfWoS2·OpenAlex3

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ4/r/munzur/2051
  Comparative And Dynamic Analysis of Türkiye's Competitiveness in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles; [İnsansız Hava Araçlarında Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücünün Karşılaştırmalı ve Dinamik Analizi]

  Aydin, Üzeyir; Ateş, Erdem; Öztürk, Hasan

  The study aims to determine the competitiveness of Türkiye’s UAV exports in a dynamic framework. The analysis used data from the first 20 countries with the largest share in the production and trade of products designated as UAVs by the Harmonic System six-digit and by the European Commission for 2012-2021. Within the scope of the study, it is determined that some countries have high competitiveness in 4 product groups examined with five different foreign trade indexes. It is concluded that Türkiye has strategic and dynamic superiority in two of the four product groups.

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  AtıfOpenAlex2·TR Dizin1

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ3/r/munzur/1889
  The Effect of Earthquakes on International Trade: The Example of the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes; [Depremlerin Uluslararasi Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri Örneǧi]

  Ates, Erdem

  On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes occurred in Kahramanmaraş province, which are among the largest earthquakes in the history of Türkiye. The purpose of the study is to determine how these earthquakes affected the exports and imports of the region. In the study, export and import data of Türkiye and 11 provinces declared as earthquake zones were used monthly for the period from January 2021 to December 2023. In the study, the foreign trade data of the region were first examined descriptively and then with the Bai and Perron test to determine whether the earthquake caused a structural break. As a result, it was determined that the earthquakes caused a structural break in both exports and imports. After the earthquakes, exports quickly returned to their pre-earthquake levels, but a similar recovery was not observed in imports.

  AtıfScopus6·OpenAlex10·TR Dizin6

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