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- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Earthquake Hazard in Urban Areas of Bursa Province: Paleosismological Properties of the Ulubat, Bursa and İnegöl Active Faults
Karabacak, Volkan; Sançar, Taylan
This study provides a detailed mapping of active fault segments in Bursa and its surrounding regions, along with a comprehensive analysis of seismic behavior derived from paleoseismological data. As one of T & uuml;rkiyes' strategic economic centers with a dense population and industrial infrastructure, Bursa requires a holistic seismic risk assessment for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation. Paleoseismological analyses of the eastern segment of the Ulubat Fault indicate that it has been in a seismic quiescence period for approximately 1855 years. This prolonged period of inactivity highlights the potential for a large earthquake in the future around the Nil & uuml;fer Region of Bursa. Trench investigations conducted in Bursa city-centre reveal that the Bursa Fault has produced at least six surface ruptures over the past 12000 years, recurring approximately every 2000 years. Additionally, trench studies on the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault indicate that the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault has produced at least five surface ruptures over the last 12000 years, with the most recent major earthquake occurring more than 2500 years ago. Obtained results emphasize the potential for the Bursa and & Idot;neg & ouml;l faults to rupture simultaneously or in close succession, possibly triggering one another. Thus, the surface rupture caused by the 1855 Bursa earthquake is evaluated to have potentially triggered stress accumulation along the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault. This situation reveals a high probability of a surface-rupturing earthquake (M=6.2-6.9) occurring at any time on the & Idot;neg & ouml;l Fault, after 2500 years of seismic silence. Overall, these findings underscore the critical role of the faults in Bursa and its surroundings within the regional seismicity. In particular, the potential for sequential ruptures along the Bursa and & Idot;neg & ouml;l faults presents a significant earthquake hazard. This comprehensive analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the seismotectonic dynamics of the region, providing valuable insights for seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation efforts.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ2Paleoseismology of the Ganos segment; the western extend of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey)
Aksoy, Murat Ersen; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Ferry, Matthieu; Çakir, Ziyadin; Uçarkuş, Gülsen; Sançar, Taylan; Altin, Mehmet Uğur
The Ganos fault that ruptured on 9 August 1912 (Mw: 7.4) is the westernmost inland segment of the North Anatolian fault (NAF). Here, the Ganos fault is bounded at its two tips with offshore faults segments, in the Sea of Marmara to the east and the Gulf of Saros to the west in the North Aegean Trough. Therefore, the paleoseismology of the 45-km-long inland fault is of importance to the seismic hazard analysis related to offshore active faults and in particular for the seismic gap in the Marmara Region. Earlier studies have established an earthquake chronology for the western and eastern inland tips of the Ganos fault. Here, we extend the paleoseismic studies toward the central segment. Three trenches at Yörgüç have revealed evidence for two faulting events, possibly post-1669 CE ±30 years, which can be correlated to the 1659 or 1766, and the 1912 historical earthquakes. At Yeniköy, we determined an offset of 46 ± 1 m and 47 ± 1 m on a stream channel and a ridge-crest, respectively. In two trenches we determined two faulting events for the last 1000 years and seven events for the last 3500 years. In trench T5, the base of the displaced stream channel provides a calibrated date of 829–591 BCE. Using the 46 ± 1 m right-lateral displacement, we calculate a slip rate of 16.9 ± 0.7 mm/year for the last 2732 ± 119 years. A combined analysis with earlier paleoseismic studies on the Ganos fault suggests that the historical earthquakes of 1912, 1766b or 1659, 1354 or 1343a, and 1063 ruptured the entire inland fault section. In such a case, the recurrence interval for this section of the NAF corresponds to 283 ± 81 years. Combining earlier estimations, we suggest an average slip rate of 17.1 ± 0.9 mm/year for the last 2700 years and observe a characteristic slip behavior of 4.5 to 5 m per event for this section of the North Anatolian plate boundary fault.
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