Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Evaluation and Classification of Emergency and Disaster Assembly Areas with ORESTE-Sort
Ozdemir, Umit; Mete, Suleyman; Gul, Muhammet
Emergency and Disaster Assembly Areas (EDAA) are designated safe zones where basic needs can be met until temporary shelters are established following natural or man-made disasters like floods, fires, earthquakes, explosions, or chemical incidents. Promptly relocating disaster victims to these areas is crucial for minimizing loss of life and facilitating effective search and rescue operations by maintaining an uninterrupted flow of information. To prepare for disasters like earthquakes, which cause significant material and emotional damage to large populations, sustainable disaster management must be ensured to evaluate site suitability, correct deficiencies, and avoid inappropriate locations. This study will examine the evaluation criteria for EDAAs established by the Tunceli Provincial Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) in terms of area, structure, security, and accessibility, taking into account the region’s specific characteristics. Based on a literature review, eleven criteria have been proposed and ranked using the Besson mean ranking method. Areas have been classified into four categories (e.g., adequate, not suitable) using the optimistic, pessimistic, and comprise approaches of the Assignment Rule Driven by Attitudes (ARDA) and the ORESTE-Sort method. The examination of 19 EDAA provides two perspectives: an optimistic view that recommends classifying eleven areas as first class and using all areas as they are, and a pessimistic view that calls for urgent improvements in three areas and states that one area (EDAA 1) is deemed unsuitable due to its assignment to class (Formula presented.). It is also advised that the second area should not be used, despite being rated as class (Formula presented.), due to its proximity to the river and its slope characteristics. The study also performs a sensitivity analysis of the method and provides recommendations for future research.
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İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ1Enhancing waiting time performance of clinical laboratories for pregnant patients with seasonal respiratory diseases: a simulation-based Lean Six Sigma approach
Ortíz-Barrios, Miguel; Celani de Souza, Helder Jose; Petrillo, Antonella; Gul, Muhammet; Yücesan, Melih; Navarro-Jiménez, Eduardo; Alfaro-Saíz, Juan-José; Ariza-Ortíz, Andrés
Purpose – Clinical laboratory performance is critical in managing seasonal respiratory diseases (SRDs); however, prolonged waiting times can lead to patient dissatisfaction and nonquality costs. This challenge is particularly acute for pregnant patients, who face increased health risks from diagnostic delays. This study aims to improve waiting times before sample collection in clinical laboratories serving pregnant patients with SRDs by integrating Lean Six Sigma (LSS) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES). Design/methodology/approach – The proposed framework was validated in a public clinical laboratory using the DMAIC (Define–Measure–Analyze–Improve–Control) methodology. DES was embedded within the Analyze and Improve phases to model patient flow and assess improvement scenarios before implementation. Findings – The integrated LSS–DES approach resulted in a significant reduction in waiting times. During SRD peak periods, waiting time before sample collection for pregnant patients decreased from 1.01 to 0.10 h per patient. These results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness and practical usefulness for decision-makers seeking performance improvements in resource-constrained healthcare environments. Originality/value – This study enhances existing literature by integrating LSS and DES to address laboratory performance challenges associated with SRDs. The combined LSS-DES used for pregnant patients during outbreak periods is novel. The study offers contextual innovation for a vulnerable population, methodological advancement through embedding DES within the DMAIC cycle, and practical laboratory validation. The framework is particularly valuable for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where scalable solutions are essential.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ4CLASSIFYING VOLUNTEERS PARTICIPATED IN SEARCH AND RESCUE ACTIVITIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TOPSIS-SORT AND ORESTE-SORT METHODS
Ozdemir, Umit; Mete, Suleyman; Gul, Muhammet
Volunteers collaborate with professionals to provide institutional assistance in various areas; their management differs from that of professionals. To maximise volunteer productivity, categorising volunteers according to their knowledge and experience levels and distributing tasks increases volunteer retention and task efficiency. This study categorizes volunteers into four groups, fulfilling nine criteria identified through a literature review of search and rescue activities. TOPSIS-Sort and ORESTE-Sort (Optimist and Pessimist approaches) are employed in classification. Only one alternative is consistently assigned to the same class across all methods. While ORESTE-Sort offers greater flexibility and three distinct classification outcomes, it is more complex and sensitive to threshold values. TOPSIS-Sort, though simpler and producing a single classification, requires criterion weight. The Wilcoxon signed rank test is applied to evaluate the similarity between ORESTE-Sort and TOPSIS-Sort results; there are significant differences between the two methods. The study concludes by comparing the methods' applications, steps, and solution approaches, highlighting their respective advantages and disadvantages, and suggesting directions for future research.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Analyzing Failures In Wind–Solar Hybrid Energy Systems Using a Fuzzy-Based BWM-MARCOS Approach: Challenges and Solutions
Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Demirel, Hakan; Gul, Muhammet
The reliability of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) depends heavily on the identification and management of potential failure modes. This study employs a fuzzy-based BWM-MARCOS approach to systematically analyze and prioritize failure modes within wind–solar hybrid systems. The model aims to prioritize the failures considering four important risk parameters: (1) severity of the failure on system, staff, and failure, (2) failure occurrence chance, (3) effort and ease of detecting the cause of the failure, and (4) economic impact of the failure. In this context, four key risk indicators were evaluated to rank failures, revealing that SP1 (cell damage), ESS1 (battery degradation), and WT11 (battery fire) are the most critical due to their potential impact on system operations. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of these rankings under varying parameter weights. Additionally, cross-method validation using fuzzy TOPSIS, SAW, and MARCOS demonstrated high correlation coefficients, underscoring the reliability of the results. Tailored mitigation strategies, including advanced diagnostics, durable materials, and robust monitoring systems, are proposed to address these critical failures. While the current methodology applies to various HRES configurations, future research should incorporate real-world operational data and machine learning techniques to enhance predictive capabilities and dynamic risk management.
AtıfScopus7WoS7OpenAlex8İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Assessing interrelationships among circular economy implementation strategies
Ahmadi, Hadi Badri; Gul, Muhammet; Gupta, Himanshu; Yucesan, Melih; Liou, James J.H.
Strategies for implementing a circular economy (CE) are designed to enhance resource efficiency, minimize the consumption of raw materials, and decrease waste. Although many articles have investigated CE implementation strategies, research focusing on the interactions and interrelationships among these strategies remains scarce. To address this issue, this study develops an evaluation framework, with the aim of assessing the interactions among strategies for CE implementation in the context of the manufacturing sector of an emerging economy using Decomposed Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DF-DEMATEL) methodology. The findings suggest that “Investment in green technology” is the most critical strategy and should receive the greatest attention for successfully implementing CE. This research helps industrial decision-makers and specialists to invest in the most critical strategies within their supply chains and move towards sustainable development.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1A two-stage volunteer assignment model for post-disaster search and rescue operations
Ozdemir, Umit; Mete, Suleyman; Gul, Muhammet
Effective volunteer management requires ensuring operational continuity and maximizing benefits from all team members. Prioritizing volunteers with adequate knowledge and experience in task assignments is crucial for maintaining workflow continuity. This study employs a two-stage model for allocating areas and tasks to volunteers in search and rescue operations. The first stage identifies the optimal number of volunteer response centers using the P-median problem. Considering population density as demand, 7 out of 14 accessible and protected disaster collection areas meeting basic needs are selected as optimal response centers based on distance. In the second stage, a mixed-integer programming model is proposed for volunteer assignment, which prioritizes assigning the most knowledgeable and experienced volunteers to critical positions. The model’s flexibility and applicability are demonstrated by incorporating voluntary rest periods, which are allocated based on the urgent needs of response centers in various post-disaster scenarios. Solved using GAMS/CPLEX, the model’s results show that expert volunteers in low-demand scenarios are prioritized, working 5 out of 9 shifts, while other volunteers receive insufficient assignments. In high-demand scenarios, some response centers face volunteer shortages, with a deficit of 62 volunteers across 9 shifts in non-emergency areas. The study evaluates the benefits and drawbacks of the volunteer assignment model and offers recommendations for future research.
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İncele - Kitap BölümüYalnız künye2025Bayesian Best–Worst Method Application for Assessing the Potential Effecting Areas of Climate Change: A Case Study in Turkey
Konurhan, Zekeriya; Yücesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
‘Climate Change’ is a term used to refer to global changes in the Earth's average temperature and the consequences of changes in temperature. More clearly, it demonstrates changes in temperature and weather patterns over time. The emergence of this situation directly or indirectly affects irreparable damages and major/minor disasters in many areas. Determining the answer to the question of which of these areas has an impact at what level of importance will provide guidance on which one should be prioritized in carrying out an effective treatment. Therefore, in this study, this problem is ad-dressed as a multi-criteria decision problem using Bayesian Best–Worst Method. The potential impacts have been categorized under 8 main areas and weighted via participating of 8 competent experts (geography, emergency disaster management, geomorphologist, climate scientist etc.) in the field of climate change. The study results determined that B (Ecosystems and Water Resources) has the most critical impact area, with 0.200. The least essential domain is G4 (Adaptation and Resilience Strategies in the Tourism Industry), which weighs 0.012. The results showed that they provide important clues regarding which impacts should be addressed first.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ2Forecasting daily natural gas consumption with regression, time series and machine learning based methods
Yucesan, Melih; Pekel, Engin; Celik, Erkan; Gul, Muhammet; Serin, Faruk
An effective short-term natural gas forecasting method contributes to social contributions and allows industrial chain elements to function effectively and minimize economic losses. We dealt with a comparative framework on the applicability of different methods in daily natural gas service (NGS) consumption forecasting. In this context, time series, machine learning, evolutionary and population-based approaches, and their hybrid versions are applied to the NGS data. Hybridized approaches are tested in the scope of NGS consumption forecasting for the first time in the literature in this study. The case of Turkey is handled, and its NGS data is used to demonstrate the comparative framework’s applicability. The comparative study is assessed in the lights of common forecasting accuracy measures of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), R-squared (R2), and mean squared error (MSE). According to each method’s results, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) and artificial neural network (ANN) hybrid model provides the most dominant performance with respect to MAPE. The lowest error was obtained with a MAPE value of 0.357 in this hybrid model constructed under seven neurons in its ANN structure. This model is followed by another hybrid model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-ANN, with a MAPE value of 0.5 under nine neurons in terms of accuracy performance. The worst performance value belongs to the Genetic algorithm-ANN hybrid model with a MAPE value of approximately 26%.
AtıfScopus16WoS19OpenAlex22İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ1Evaluation of Green Deal compliance performance with a hybrid comparative multi-attribute decision model
Karadag, Mehmet; Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Ortiz-Barrios, Miguel; Ishizaka, Alessio; Khan, Jehangir
The environmental and economic transformation initiated by the European Green Deal is influencing not only EU member states, but also other countries engaged in trade with the EU. This transformation mandates a shift towards sustainable practices in sectors such as agriculture, industry, transportation, energy, and finance. Compliance with the Green Deal is increasingly crucial for countries, particularly those with significant commercial ties to the EU. However, differing levels of development lead to varying degrees of implementation. While studies on the Green Deal compliance of EU member states exist, an evaluation of Türkiye—a candidate EU member with substantial trade relations—would address a significant gap in the literature. This study introduces a novel hybrid comparative multi-attribute decision model that combines subjective (Best Worst Method and its derivatives) and objective (Entropy) weighting to determine the relative importance of 14 sub-criteria under three main criteria: “Reducing” the impacts of climate change, “Protecting” the planet and health, and “Enabling” a green and just transition. Using the Ratio Product Model (RPM), Türkiye's Green Deal compliance from 2017 to 2021 was evaluated. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the findings, and comparisons were made using various multi-attribute decision models, including SAW, TOPSIS, and VIKOR, as well as benchmarking against EU countries. The criteria weights, derived from a combination of subjective and objective methods, highlighted the dominant importance of the “Reducing” criterion across all methods. The “Enabling” and “Protecting” criteria showed slight variations in importance depending on the method. The RPM results indicated that 2021 was Türkiye's best-performing year in terms of Green Deal compliance, while 2017 showed the weakest performance. Despite some fluctuations between 2018 and 2019, Türkiye demonstrated significant progress overall. The study not only advances the methodology for evaluating Green Deal compliance but also provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, enabling more informed decision-making. By highlighting Türkiye's trajectory, the findings offer strategic guidance for non-EU countries aiming to align with Green Deal objectives, fostering sustainable development and strengthening economic ties with the EU.
AtıfScopus11OpenAlex11İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ1Investigating forest fire causes through an integrated Bayesian network and geographic information system approach
Konurhan, Zekeriya; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
Forests are among the most critical natural resources worldwide and are essential for a sustainable ecosystem. In recent years, climate change and human activities have increased their impact on forests, and forest fires-especially in summer- have caused significant forest losses globally. This paper integrates Bayesian Network (BN) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to pinpoint the possible causes of forest fires and analyze their complex interactions. The study used data from 1465 fires between 2017 and 2022 in Muğla province in southwestern Türkiye. Within the scope of the study, 11 variables were chosen, such as elevation, slope, aspect, wind speed, population density, and road network, to build a BN model that combines physical and human geographical features. These variables overlapped using the pairwise intersect tool from ArcGIS Pro during the BN model setup, and probability values were calculated. The overall probability of fire in the BN model was determined to be 0.81, with probabilities ranging from 0.81 to 0.56 in low-altitude, moderately sloped, and south-facing areas. Scenario analyses examined fire risk under different conditions, highlighting the most influential variables for fire prevention efforts. The study identified fire-prone areas as spatial data, revealing that densely forested coastal and certain inland regions are at higher risk, whereas bare high-altitude areas with steep slopes pose lower risk. The BN model can be further enhanced by incorporating additional variables, making it a valuable tool for future fire risk assessment and mitigation strategies research.
AtıfScopus5WoS5OpenAlex7İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ2A fuzzy Bayesian network risk assessment model for analyzing the causes of slow-down processes in two-stroke ship main engines
Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet; Demirel, Hakan
This paper presents a risk assessment approach for analyzing the causes of malfunction-related main engine slowdowns. A fuzzy Bayesian Network-based methodology is used to assess the factors contributing to the engine’s slow-down processes. The model addresses the complexity and uncertainty inherent in maritime operations with fuzzy sets where numerous interrelated factors can affect engine performance, and the Bayesian network to capture probabilistic dependencies. It considers various potential causes of the slow-down of ship engines that the manufacturer provides. Results demonstrate the model's ability to identify the influential factors leading to engine slow-down events and quantify the overall risk. Integrating fuzzy logic and Bayesian Networks comprehensively assesses relevant risk factors. It enables maritime stakeholders to manage engine performance and improves operational safety proactively. Findings can inform decision-makers, enabling the implementation of targeted maintenance strategies, fuel quality control measures, and crew training programs in the maritime industry.
AtıfScopus19WoS17OpenAlex18İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ2A risk assessment model with dependent failure modes for the manufacturing and design processes of medical equipment
Lo, Huai-Wei; Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Liaw, Ching-Fang
The reliability of medical equipment is paramount for surgical success. Manufacturers are continuously exploring risk assessment and improvement strategies to prevent equipment malfunctions during surgery. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can primarily be divided into two types: DFMEA (Design FMEA) and PFMEA (Process FMEA). Traditional FMEA serves as a practical tool for identifying and prioritizing key failure modes (FMs). However, past FMEA research has overlooked the interdependencies among FMs, treating them as independent entities, which does not align with real-world operations. This paper introduces a groundbreaking risk dependency assessment model aimed at addressing the influential relationships among FMs. The modified technique for defining the influential relationship of failure modes (modified TEDIR-FMs) is developed to compute the relative risk scores of different FMs accurately. At its core, this paper integrates concepts from multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques into FMEA, with a particular focus on the interdependencies of failure modes in the manufacturing and design manufacturing processes of medical equipment. The model’s application is demonstrated through a case study on a medical device for hernia surgery. The introduction of modified TEDIR-FMs not only enhances the accuracy of risk assessments but also offers a fresh perspective on risk management within the design and manufacturing processes. The research results indicate that the three failure modes with the highest risk are “adhesive does not deploy or only partially deploys from the dispenser,” “the mesh does not adhere to the adhesive,” and “the adhesive drips from the tip.” In the manufacturing and design processes of this device, greater attention should be given to improving the adhesive components.
AtıfScopus5WoS4OpenAlex2İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ1A comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths using fuzzy rule-based Bayesian network and multi-attribute decision-making
Demirel, Hakan; Başhan, Veysi; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
Mooring operations -especially at hydrocarbon berths- are critical components of the marine and offshore industry. They usually involve securing the berths of ships carrying valuable cargo and ensuring the safety of personnel, assets, and the environment. For this purpose, a comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring operations at hydrocarbon berths is proposed in this study. This framework helps evaluate risks using a rule-based Bayesian network. In the assessment of mooring risks, four risk parameters of severity, occurrence, detection, and maintenance are considered to construct the BN structure of each mooring risk. These parameters are weighted with the aid of the fuzzy Best Worst Method. Hereafter, a fuzzy rule-based system is constructed by incorporating BN to determine a risk priority score. The framework also develops mitigation strategies to maintain effective risk management for safe and secure maritime transportation. Sensitivity analyzes and comparison studies were conducted to test the validity of the proposed comprehensive risk management framework. The study reveals that the most critical risk is associated with Technical Failures (Q1) in the cluster pertaining to the automation of Quick Release Hooks. This risk stems from technical malfunctions in automation systems, encompassing sensors and control mechanisms, potentially resulting in the unintended release of mooring lines. The second highest priority risk is linked to Human Error (M1) in the mooring risks cluster, attributed to human errors such as inadequate training, miscommunication, and procedural mistakes during mooring operations, posing risks of accidents and damage to ships and infrastructure. Conversely, the least significant risk, Redundancy (Q5), focuses on redundancy. This risk is associated with automation and underscores the importance of implementing redundancy mechanisms to ensure the safe continuation of mooring operations in the face of system failures. In conclusion, the proposed comprehensive risk assessment framework offers a systematic approach to evaluate and prioritize mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths. The study’s findings emphasize the critical importance of addressing technical malfunctions in the automation of Quick Release Hooks and human errors during mooring operations. By identifying the most significant risks and developing mitigation strategies, this framework contributes to enhancing the safety and security of maritime transportation, particularly in the context of hydrocarbon berths.
AtıfScopus11WoS11OpenAlex13İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ1A stratified Bayesian decision-making model for occupational risk assessment of production facilities
Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Karci, Coskun
In the production industry, harmony and good management of the workplace environment, production machinery/vehicles, and workers are necessary to carry out production by occupational health and safety (OHS) principles. Therefore, occupational risk assessment (ORA) is crucial for manufacturing-based industries. When deciding on the prioritization of risks in ORA, adding to the analysis “how the parameters defining the risk changes in possible different states in the future” positively affects the soundness of decision-making. Therefore, this study aims to develop a unique ORA model handling future changes in the importance levels of risk parameters in the risk assessment process. To this aim, the concept of stratification and the best-worst method (BWM) are used together to determine the importance weights of the risk parameters in the ORA. In addition, the Bayesian version of BWM considers more than one expert's evaluations without losing information. In a nutshell, an approach called stratified Bayesian BWM (SBBWM) that can be used for further studies has been introduced to the literature. The technique determines the priority scores of each hazard by technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution sorting (TOPSIS-Sort) method. Thus, while determining each hazard's priority score and order, the class of this risk has also been determined. The proposed approach evaluated thirty-six risks encountered in manufacturing, storage, handling, and laboratory processes of a flour production facility. Control measures to be taken for each risk were also determined. Methodologically, various scenario analyses and sensitivity studies were conducted to reveal how the results changed in different conditions. The proposed approach provides a more comprehensive procedure for production facilities than traditional methods and avoids the deficiencies of traditional methods.
AtıfScopus18WoS16OpenAlex18İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ1Integrated Approach Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making to Support Classifier Selection for Technology Adoption in Patients with Parkinson Disease: Algorithm Development and Validation
Ortiz-Barrios, Miguel; Cleland, Ian; Donnelly, Mark; Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Jiménez-Delgado, Genett Isabel; Nugent, Chris; Madrid-Sierra, Stephany
Background: Parkinson disease (PD) is reported to be among the most prevalent neurodegenerative diseases globally, presenting ongoing challenges and increasing burden on health care systems. In an effort to support patients with PD, their carers, and the wider health care sector to manage this incurable condition, the focus has begun to shift away from traditional treatments. One of the most contemporary treatments includes prescribing assistive technologies (ATs), which are viewed as a way to promote independent living and deliver remote care. However, the uptake of these ATs is varied, with some users not ready or willing to accept all forms of AT and others only willing to adopt low-technology solutions. Consequently, to manage both the demands on resources and the efficiency with which ATs are deployed, new approaches are needed to automatically assess or predict a user’s likelihood to accept and adopt a particular AT before it is prescribed. Classification algorithms can be used to automatically consider the range of factors impacting AT adoption likelihood, thereby potentially supporting more effective AT allocation. From a computational perspective, different classification algorithms and selection criteria offer various opportunities and challenges to address this need. Objective: This paper presents a novel hybrid multicriteria decision-making approach to support classifier selection in technology adoption processes involving patients with PD. Methods: First, the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP) was implemented to calculate the relative priorities of criteria and subcriteria considering experts’ knowledge and uncertainty. Second, the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (IF-DEMATEL) was applied to evaluate the cause-effect relationships among criteria/subcriteria. Finally, the combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) was used to rank the candidate classifiers based on their capability to model the technology adoption. Results: We conducted a study involving a mobile smartphone solution to validate the proposed methodology. Structure (F5) was identified as the factor with the highest relative priority (overall weight=0.214), while adaptability (F4) (D-R=1.234) was found to be the most influencing aspect when selecting classifiers for technology adoption in patients with PD. In this case, the most appropriate algorithm for supporting technology adoption in patients with PD was the A3 - J48 decision tree (M3=2.5592). The results obtained by comparing the CoCoSo method in the proposed approach with 2 alternative methods; (simple additive weighting and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution) support the accuracy and applicability of the proposed methodology. It was observed that the final scores of the algorithms in each method were highly correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.8). Conclusions: The IF-AHP-IF-DEMATEL-CoCoSo approach helped to identify classification algorithms that do not just discriminate between good and bad adopters of assistive technologies within the Parkinson population but also consider technology-specific features like design, quality, and compatibility that make these classifiers easily implementable by clinicians in the health care system.
AtıfScopus5OpenAlex5İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ1Integrating discrete-event simulation and artificial intelligence for shortening bed waiting times in hospitalization departments during respiratory disease seasons
Ortiz-Barrios, Miguel; Ishizaka, Alessio; Barbati, Maria; Arias-Fonseca, Sebastián; Khan, Jehangir; Gul, Muhammet; Yücesan, Melih; Alfaro-Saíz, Juan-Jose; Pérez-Aguilar, Armando
Seasonal Respiratory Diseases (SRDs) usually produce a heightened number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances due to their rapid dissemination within the community and the ineffective prevention measures. Such a context requires effective management of the emergency care processes to provide in-time diagnosis and treatment to infected patients. Nonetheless, EDs have evidenced severe operational deficiencies during these periods, thereby provoking extended bed waiting times in Hospitalization Departments (HDs). Therefore, this paper presents a hybrid approach merging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) to shorten the bed waiting times in HDs considering patient records collated in the first emergency care stages. First, we implemented Random Forest (RF) to estimate the probability of respiratory worsening based on sociodemographic and clinical patient data. Second, we inserted these probabilities into a DES model mimicking the emergency care from the admission to the HD. We then pretested different HD configurations and strategies seeking to reduce the HD bed waiting time. A case study of a European hospital group was used to validate the suggested framework. The AI-DES model enabled decision-makers to identify an improvement proposal with hospitalization bed waiting time lessening, oscillating between 7.93 and 7.98 h.
AtıfScopus16OpenAlex17İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ1Evaluating sustainability of urban mobility of Asian cities: An integrated approach of interval type-2 fuzzy best-worst method and MULTIMOORA
Yucesan, Melih; Özkan, Barış; Mete, Suleyman; Gul, Muhammet; Özceylan, Eren
The motivation for sustainable urban mobility is driven by the need to create environmentally friendly, socially inclusive, economically viable, and healthier cities for current and future generations. It requires a comprehensive approach that combines infrastructure development, policy changes, behavioral shifts, and technological advancements to transform urban transportation systems. The importance of creating increasingly sustainable urban transportation is now greater than it has ever been. One of the attempts in this field is the sustainable urban transport index (SUTI) developed by the United Nations (UN). Although the SUTI has a comprehensive pool of criteria for the evaluation of mobility sustainability of cities, considering the criteria weights as equal and disregarding the uncertainties present in expert opinions is viewed as a significant drawback. To satisfy the aforementioned deficiency, a novel integrated approach including the best-worst method (BWM), multi-objective optimization by ratio analysis (MOORA) and MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) method is develloped and applied for the SUTI evaluation. In order to manage ambiguous linguistic approximations, the utilization of BWM is applied within the framework of interval type-2 fuzzy (IT2F) sets. While IT2F-BWM is used to prioritize the main and sub-indicators of SUTI, MULTIMOORA approach is applied to rank the Asian cities. The findings imply that the proposed approach not only provides a more scientific perspective but also provides the opportunity to perform sensitivity analysis on criteria weights. Therefore, the results obtained in this study are expected to help cities to create a road map for planning sustainable urban mobility (e.g. Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan).
AtıfScopus23OpenAlex26İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023An integrated Bayesian Best-Worst Method and GIS-based approach for offshore wind power plant site selection: A case study in North Aegean and Marmara Sea (Türkiye)
Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Konurhan, Zekeriya
In today’s world, renewable energy sources are in great demand due to the negative ef- fects of fossil fuels on the environment. Wind power plants are an important renewable energy source alternative to fossil fuel consumption. Offshore wind farms established in coastal areas and seas are used effectively in many parts of the world. The wind power plants, especially in the Northwest region of Turkey and the Aegean coasts, constitute an important potential. This study selects suitable sites for offshore wind farms in the Marmara Sea and North Aegean Coasts of Turkey by integrating the Bayesian Best-Worst method (BWM) and GIS. Bayesian BWM improves the traditional BWM integrating the preferences of multiple experts. In the study, 17 sub-criteria were determined under four main criteria of “technical”, “socio-economic”, “environment,” and “location”. Ex- perts’ judgments through the filled enabled the criterion weights to be obtained. The criteria weights found using the Bayesian-BWM model were integrated into the GIS, and suitable locations for the offshore wind farm were determined. Accordingly, the study area off the coasts of Aliağa, Bozcaada, and Gökçeada on the North Aegean coast, and the part south of the Marmara Sea and the area around Kapıdağ Peninsula are sugges- ted as suitable areas for wind power plants.
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İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ1COVID-19 safe campus evaluation for universities by a hybrid interval type-2 fuzzy decision-making model
Baskak, Dilber; Ozbey, Sumeyye; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
The fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected the whole world in recent years and has had devastating effects on all segments of society, has been one of the most important priorities. The Turkish Standards Institution has determined a checklist to contribute to developing safe and clean environments in higher education institutions in Turkey and to follow-up on infection control measures. However, this study is only a checklist that makes it necessary for decision-makers to make a subjective evaluation during the evaluation process, while the need to develop a more effective, systematic framework that takes into account the importance levels of multiple criteria has emerged. Therefore, this study applies the best-worst method under interval type-2 fuzzy set concept (IT2F-BWM) to determine the importance levels of criteria affecting the “COVID-19 safe campus” evaluation of universities in the context of global pandemic. A three-level hierarchy consisting of three main criteria, 11 sub-criteria, and 58 sub-criteria has been created for this aim. Considering the hierarchy, the most important sub-criterion was determined as periodic disinfection. The high contribution of the interval-valued type-2 fuzzy sets in expressing the uncertainty in the decision-makers’ evaluations and the fact that BWM provides criterion weights with a mathematical optimization model that produces less pairwise comparisons and higher consistency are the main factors in choosing this approach. Simple additive weighting (SAW) has also been injected into the IT2F-BWM to determine the safety level of any university campus regarding COVID-19. Thus, decision-makers will be better prepared for the devastating effects of the pandemic by first improving the factors that are relatively important in the fight against the pandemic. In addition, a threshold value will be determined by considering all criteria, and it will prepare the ground for a road map for campuses. A case study is employed to apply the proposed model, and a comparison study is also presented with the Bayesian BWM to validate the results of the criteria weights.
AtıfScopus4WoS3OpenAlex2İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2023Scopus SJRQ4Development of a best-worst method based MCDM approach for solar power plant location selection: an application to Tunceli, Turkey
Aykac, Yunus Emre; Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet
Solar energy stands out with its increasing potential in the world. The decision to choose the location of a solar power plant is very important due to the investment return. In this study, a solar power plant site selection for Tunceli, Turkey is studied with a two-stage multi-criteria decision-making approach. In the first stage, the importance levels of the determined nine factors are obtained by the best-worst method (BWM). In the second stage, the most appropriate site is selected among the eight districts of Tunceli. As a result of the first stage, solar and fault line emerged as the most and least important factor, respectively. The second stage showed that Pertek district is the most suitable place. A comparative framework has been created including five different MCDM methods, which strengthens the final decision's accuracy and reveals whether each method's results are correlated.
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