The Impact of Informal Employment on Macro Variables in Türkiye: An Empirical Analysis

Informal employment has a wide-ranging economic impact. In terms of economic implications, it can affect growth, labor force participation, inflation, and taxation. In Türkiye, informal employment, which has been frequently researched in the economy especially after 1990, continues to maintain its importance. The fact that the effectiveness of informal employment continues makes the subject worth researching. In this study, the impact of informal employment on macroeconomic indicators in Turkey was investigated. The study's methodology included time series analyses spanning the years 1993 to 2024. In the study with informal employment as the dependent variable, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, growth, current account deficit, and unemployment were represented. Descriptive statistics of the variables were provided initially in the study, and their stationarity was then assessed using the unit root test. The long-term link between variables that were stationary at the same level was ascertained using the cointegration test. The FMOLS test was used to examine how the variables affected the dependent variable. Lastly, the study's causality test was used to ascertain the direction of the variables' effects on one another. The findings showed that during the studied period, informal employment in Turkey had an impact on macro factors.