Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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Araştırmacılar(4)

• Acar, Sedat
• Ateş-Saygılı, Çiğdem
• Ateş, Erdem
• Pehlivan, Ceren

• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/munzur/6109
  The Impact of Informal Employment on Macro Variables in Türkiye: An Empirical Analysis

  Pehlivan, Ceren

  Informal employment has a wide-ranging economic impact. In terms of economic implications, it can affect growth, labor force participation, inflation, and taxation. In Türkiye, informal employment, which has been frequently researched in the economy especially after 1990, continues to maintain its importance. The fact that the effectiveness of informal employment continues makes the subject worth researching. In this study, the impact of informal employment on macroeconomic indicators in Turkey was investigated. The study's methodology included time series analyses spanning the years 1993 to 2024. In the study with informal employment as the dependent variable, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, growth, current account deficit, and unemployment were represented. Descriptive statistics of the variables were provided initially in the study, and their stationarity was then assessed using the unit root test. The long-term link between variables that were stationary at the same level was ascertained using the cointegration test. The FMOLS test was used to examine how the variables affected the dependent variable. Lastly, the study's causality test was used to ascertain the direction of the variables' effects on one another. The findings showed that during the studied period, informal employment in Turkey had an impact on macro factors.

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  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/munzur/6059
  İleri Teknoloji İhracatı ve Ar-Ge Harcamasının Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: G20 Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

  Pehlivan, Ceren

  Küreselleşme sonrası atılan yenilikçi adımlar teknolojik gelişimin sağlanmasına ve yayılmasına olanak sağlamıştır. Birçok büyüme teorisinde dışsal olarak yer alan teknoloji değişkeni içsel bir değişken haline gelmiştir. Teknolojik gelişmeler neticesinde ülkeler dış ticarette rekabet gücü sağlamıştır. Dış ticarette yaşanan gelişmeler ürün çeşitliliğin artmasına da yol açmıştır. Ayrıca ekonomik anlamda katma değer oluşmasıyla büyüme oranlarında da iyileşmeler yaşanmaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada G20 ekonomileri için bir analiz yürütülmüştür. Çalışmada 2000-2022 yılları baz alınmıştır. Yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel analizi yapılmıştır. İleri teknoloji ihracatı, Ar-Ge harcaması ile büyüme arasındaki ilişki hem teorik hem de ampirik olarak araştırılmıştır. Yapılan panel analizi sonucunda G20 ülkeleri genelinde ileri teknoloji ihracatı ve Ar-Ge harcamalarının büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026/r/munzur/5957
  The Role of Socio-Economic Development Level in Van Province on Migration

  Pehlivan, Ceren; Yuzbasi, Bahadir; Tuncel, Gokhan

  The evolution of socioeconomic indicators in Turkey is critical to the survival of regional differences. The difference in development between regions leads to migration between provinces. Particularly certain patterns of economic programs and social and political problems constitute the main reasons for the increase in migration between them. When examining migration, it must be considered together with the social and economic structure. Because the most visible phenomenon that reflects the developments in the economic and social structure is migration. Migration is explained and examined with different components in terms of its content. In our study we investigated the concept of migration, which has many effects and features, in the context of Van Province. The Geographically Weighted Regression and Ordinary Least Squares Analysis were used in the research. According to the OLS model, the level of socioeconomic development explained 36% of the total variance (adjusted R2) in migration The GWR model explained 53% of the total variance in migration by socioeconomic development level. This represents a 17% increase over the OLS model. The GWR model showed an increase in model fit, while the AIC criterion decreased when compared to the OLS model. Similarly, the fact that the sum of squares is less in the GWR model now proves its superiority

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• MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/1521
  Geoeconomic dependency in selected rare-earth metals and compounds: A product-level trade network analysis

  Ateş, Erdem

  This study examines trade concentration, network structure, and China-centered import dependency in three selected rare-earth metal and compound categories (HS 280530, HS 284610, and HS 284690) over 2012–2024. Using bilateral trade data from the CEPII BACI database, the analysis combines concentration ratios and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index with bilateral trade-flow networks, centrality measures, cosine-similarity networks, and country-level China Import Dependency Ratios (CID). The results reveal substantial product-level heterogeneity. Trade concentration and network structure evolve differently across the three categories, while changes in similarity-network density, community structure, and modularity are particularly pronounced for HS 284690. Trade shares and network centrality do not always move in parallel, indicating that market concentration and structural network position capture distinct dimensions of trade organization. Country-level dependency analysis further shows increasing reliance on China across all three product categories: both mean CID and the share of importing countries sourcing at least 50% of their imports from China increase between 2012 and 2024. Overall, the findings demonstrate the value of integrating concentration, network, and dependency measures to identify product-specific patterns of geoeconomic exposure in selected rare-earth metals and compounds.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ2/r/munzur/1333
  The Relationship Between Agricultural Carbon Dioxide Emission and Agriculture Subsectors Production: Static Panel Data Approach

  Peker, Ayşe Esra; Akdağ, Nuran; Veysikarani, Dilek; Kaya, Mustafa Göktuğ; Kaya, Perihan Hazel

  Human activities contribute to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which have serious environmental, economic, and social effects of climate change. This has sparked efforts to find large-scale solutions to eliminate the causes of climate change. While these solutions mainly involve reducing carbon emissions through global agreements, individual nations have also taken steps to cut emissions by changing production methods, such as irrigation and fertilisation, to ensure the efficient and effective use of resources and the proper storage and transportation of food. As a result, the agricultural sector is both a source and a victim of this process. The sector’s environmental impact varies due to differing production techniques and energy needs across various sub-sectors like vegetable, grain, and fruit production. Increases in carbon dioxide emissions in this sector are connected not only to production activities but also to demographic and social factors, such as the rural population proportion. This study aims to explore the effect of vegetable, grain, and fruit production, as well as the rural population ratio, on carbon dioxide emissions. To achieve this, a static panel data analysis was conducted across 21 European countries from 1970 to 2023. According to the research findings, vegetable production increases carbon emissions from agriculture. However, it was found to have a significant, albeit borderline, impact on fruit production and to reduce carbon emissions. These results demonstrate that agriculture's contribution to carbon dioxide emissions varies by sub-sector and provide valuable information for developing sustainable agricultural policies.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/1285
  Knowledge Rent, Intangible Capital, and Core–Periphery Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

  Ateş-Saygılı, Çiğdem

  We study how ownership and pricing of intangible assets generate asymmetric macroeconomic dynamics between a core and a periphery. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which production uses tangible capital, domestically owned intangible capital, and rented foreign intangible services; the periphery pays a knowledge rent flow to the core, which acts as a wedge in its accumulation equation. Calibrated to observed income shares and depreciation patterns, the model yields sharp qualitative predictions. Following a positive technology shock in the core, core output jumps and consumption and labor rise persistently, while the periphery sees only modest output gains and slower capital build-up; a positive technology shock in the periphery can even reduce its output as rent payments drain resources, with only small, transitory effects in the core. A tighter repayment schedule modestly lifts core activity–mainly via consumption–while acting as a negative wealth shock in the periphery that lowers output, labor, and consumption. Sensitivity analyses–varying the periphery's intangible share and reliance on rented knowledge–preserve these qualitative rankings. Complementary evidence from OECD panels (2000–2019) using PVARs and state-dependent local projections shows that cross-border payments for the use of intellectual property co-move with financing conditions and macroeconomic dynamics, consistent with the model's mechanism. Policy implications include building domestic intangible capacity, easing diffusion at fair terms, and leveraging multilateral tools to reduce effective rent exposure in the periphery.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ2/r/munzur/910
  Institutions, gendered informality, and intrahousehold distribution: A dual-economy model

  Ateş-Saygılı, Çiğdem

  We study how enforcement institutions shape formalization and the intrahousehold distribution of resources in a developing economy. The model combines an enforcement wedge inside informal technology, gendered formal-attachment margins, and a collective household with a state-dependent female Pareto weight. In the benchmark wage-responsive specification, enforcement raises formalization by compressing informal wages and reallocating work toward formal jobs. Yet aggregate formalization and women's intrahousehold gains need not move together. When women are more exposed to informality and men convert the induced formal-to-informal wage ratio into formal attachment more strongly in level terms, enforcement can lower women's relative earnings, relative formal status, the female Pareto weight, and the consumption ratio during adjustment. An exact effective-access transition and local calculations for the effective-access and reduced-form labor-disutility margins show that this adverse incidence can be offset within the model while preserving formalization gains. Descriptive quarterly evidence for Türkiye documents gendered dynamics in non-agricultural social-security non-registration around salient macroeconomic and institutional episodes. The empirical evidence motivates the labor-market exposure and access channels but does not observe household bargaining or individual consumption.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/munzur/6203
  Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Valid in OECD Countries?

  Korkmaz, Özge; Pehlivan, Ceren

  Investments and savings are regarded as critical components in the evolution of economic performance. Both are employed to stimulate economic development and growth. Based on international capital movements, the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle investigated the relationship between savings and investment. The validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle was investigated in this investigation for the years 1990-2021, covering OECD countries.

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  AtıfOpenAlex2

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/munzur/6175
  The potential effects of the Zangezur Corridor on Türkiye’s foreign trade

  Ates, Erdem

  The Zangezur corridor connects Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. An exclave of Azerbaijan. After the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the obstacles to opening the Zangezur corridor were solved through the ceasefire agreement. Implementing the Zangezur corridor will shorten the route used nowadays by the Baku—Tiflis—Kars railway by almost 150 km. For this reason, it is thought that this corridor would decrease transportation costs and increase trade volumes. Türkiye, which will have direct land contact with Turkic countries, is the country of one of the most prominent effects of the opening of the Zangezur corridor. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of Türkiye’s trade volumes on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. To investigate this, the study constructs a built-in structural gravity model with a new economic geography perspective covering 182 countries from 2007 to 2023. Then, the coefficient values obtained from the model are used to determine the possible change in Türkiye's trade with nine Asian countries that are expected to use this corridor directly. According to the results, it is expected that Türkiye’s top three export-enlarging countries, respectively, are Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, which will be import-enlarging Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Uzbekistan.

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  AtıfOpenAlex1·TR Dizin1

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/munzur/6171
  Doğal Afet Maliyetlerinin Makro Ekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkisinin İncelenmesi: BRICS-T Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

  Pehlivan, Ceren

  Doğal afetler etkisi ve oluşum biçimiyle farklılık göstermektedir. Yaşanan afetler sonrasında yaşanan gelişmeler sosyal, ekonomik ve siyasi açıdan ülkelerin kayıplar yaşamasına yol açabilmektedir. Kayıpların kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri birçok alanda ve başlıkta etkisini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada doğal afet sonrasında oluşan maliyetlerin makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkisi hem teorik hem de ampirik olarak araştırılmaya çalışılmıştır. Makro değişken olarak çalışmada büyüme, işsizlik, enflasyon, harcama ve ödeme değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Her değişken için ayrı ayrı modeller oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmada 2000-2022 yılları baz alınmıştır. Panel analiziyle doğal afet maliyetlerinin makro değişkenler arasındaki ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Analizde ilk olarak değişkenlere ilişkin tanımlayıcı istatistiklere yer verilmiştir. Sonrasında yatay kesit ve delta testi yapılarak uygun nedensellik testinin yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Çıkan sonuçlar doğrultusunda Kónya nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Bu test sonucunda doğal afet değişkeni ile büyüme değişkeni arasında tek yönlü, doğal afet değişkeninden işsizlik değişkenine doğru tek yönlü, doğal afet ile yatırım harcaması değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü, doğal afet değişkeni ile harcama değişkeni arasında tek yönlü ve doğal afet değişkeni ile enflasyon değişkeni arasında tek yönlü bir bağlantının olduğu belirlenmiştir.

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  AtıfOpenAlex1·TR Dizin1

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