Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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• MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/1521
  Geoeconomic dependency in selected rare-earth metals and compounds: A product-level trade network analysis

  Ateş, Erdem

  This study examines trade concentration, network structure, and China-centered import dependency in three selected rare-earth metal and compound categories (HS 280530, HS 284610, and HS 284690) over 2012–2024. Using bilateral trade data from the CEPII BACI database, the analysis combines concentration ratios and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index with bilateral trade-flow networks, centrality measures, cosine-similarity networks, and country-level China Import Dependency Ratios (CID). The results reveal substantial product-level heterogeneity. Trade concentration and network structure evolve differently across the three categories, while changes in similarity-network density, community structure, and modularity are particularly pronounced for HS 284690. Trade shares and network centrality do not always move in parallel, indicating that market concentration and structural network position capture distinct dimensions of trade organization. Country-level dependency analysis further shows increasing reliance on China across all three product categories: both mean CID and the share of importing countries sourcing at least 50% of their imports from China increase between 2012 and 2024. Overall, the findings demonstrate the value of integrating concentration, network, and dependency measures to identify product-specific patterns of geoeconomic exposure in selected rare-earth metals and compounds.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/munzur/6175
  The potential effects of the Zangezur Corridor on Türkiye’s foreign trade

  Ates, Erdem

  The Zangezur corridor connects Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. An exclave of Azerbaijan. After the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the obstacles to opening the Zangezur corridor were solved through the ceasefire agreement. Implementing the Zangezur corridor will shorten the route used nowadays by the Baku—Tiflis—Kars railway by almost 150 km. For this reason, it is thought that this corridor would decrease transportation costs and increase trade volumes. Türkiye, which will have direct land contact with Turkic countries, is the country of one of the most prominent effects of the opening of the Zangezur corridor. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of Türkiye’s trade volumes on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. To investigate this, the study constructs a built-in structural gravity model with a new economic geography perspective covering 182 countries from 2007 to 2023. Then, the coefficient values obtained from the model are used to determine the possible change in Türkiye's trade with nine Asian countries that are expected to use this corridor directly. According to the results, it is expected that Türkiye’s top three export-enlarging countries, respectively, are Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, which will be import-enlarging Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Uzbekistan.

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  AtıfOpenAlex1·TR Dizin1

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/4841
  Trade openness, inequality, and internal conflict: global evidence from a dynamic panel analysis

  Ates, Erdem

  PurposeThis study investigates how trade openness influences internal conflict, emphasizing the moderating role of income inequality. It aims to clarify whether the benefits of globalization translate into domestic peace or exacerbate internal unrest when income distribution is unequal.Design/methodology/approachUsing an unbalanced panel of 126 countries from 1999 to 2022, the study applies a dynamic panel data framework based on two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators. This approach accounts for potential endogeneity, autocorrelation, and heterogeneity across countries. Robustness tests include alternative lag structures and difference GMM estimations.FindingsEmpirical results reveal that trade openness and GDP per capita significantly reduce the risk of internal conflict, supporting the liberal peace hypothesis. In contrast, higher income inequality, inflation, democracy index, market concentration, and external conflict increase conflict risk. The findings confirm the embedded liberalism thesis, indicating that trade promotes peace only when accompanied by redistributive domestic policies that mitigate inequality.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is subject to several limitations. While it offers robust empirical findings, the use of panel data limits the ability to capture country-specific dynamics and institutional nuances. Moreover, internal conflict is a multifaceted phenomenon influenced by non-economic factors not fully addressed in the model. Despite these limitations, the results provide valuable insights for policymakers, suggesting that trade openness alone may not ensure peace without addressing domestic inequality. Future research may benefit from disaggregated analyses or mixed-method approaches to better understand the country-level mechanisms linking globalization and internal conflict.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that policymakers should complement liberalization policies with inclusive welfare measures and skill-based interventions to ensure that trade benefits are broadly shared, preventing distributional grievances that may lead to instability.Social implicationsThis study highlights the social risks of uneven globalization. While trade can promote economic growth, its benefits must be distributed fairly to prevent societal fragmentation. High income inequality can erode trust, deepen social divisions, and increase the likelihood of unrest. Furthermore, democratization without strong institutions may fail to foster cohesion, especially in developing societies. These findings stress the importance of inclusive development policies that promote both economic opportunity and social equity to ensure long-term internal stability and reduce the risk of conflict.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by integrating trade theory and conflict analysis within a dynamic panel framework, offering one of the few cross-country empirical examinations of how trade openness, inequality, and internal conflict interact over time.

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  AtıfWoS2·OpenAlex3

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025Scopus SJRQ1/r/munzur/1598
  Airbnbfication and gentrification from the perspective of rent gap theory: the case of Beyoğlu, Istanbul

  Çobangil, Orçun; Ateş, Erdem

  This paper examines how Airbnbification affects the rental market in Istanbul's historic Beyoğlu district using rent gap theory. Given Turkey's recent soaring inflation rates, special emphasis is placed on inflation, aligning with Neil Smith's focus on its impact on rent gap formation. Beyoğlu's history and urban development in the context of neoliberalisation of Istanbul are considered, highlighting why it alone hosts 15.36% of Turkey's Airbnb listings. The analysis proceeds in four stages: first, by comparing long-term rental incomes with Airbnb revenues; second, by assessing inflation and rental growth rates; third, using Pearson correlation to analyse inflation and Airbnbification; and finally, employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to explore both short- and long-term relationships and Granger causality. These findings suggest Airbnb listings, rising rents, and inflation contribute to the ongoing rent gap, positioning Airbnbification as the latest phase of Beyoğlu's gentrification.

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  AtıfScopus4·WoS3·OpenAlex4

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025Scopus SJRQ2/r/munzur/961
  The impact of global value chains on climate change

  Ateş, Erdem; Şanlısoy, Selim

  Climate change can be defined as the increase in average temperatures due to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, predominantly due to human activities. Carbon emissions have increased at an alarming rate with the emergence of globalization, with its accompanying global value chain, and the consequent increase in global production volume with its polluting sectors. To combat this alarming situation, production with environmentally friendly technologies has emerged recently, and developing countries are embracing more and more costly environmentally friendly production techniques, although they are disadvantaged when it comes to covering the costs. However, it has been observed that they stay behind in this race to adopt environmentally friendly techniques compared to developed countries. The aim of the study, which is a novel contribution to the existing literature, is to examine the relationship between the global value chain and climate change by considering the distinction between developed and developing countries. The study used the data of 156 countries from the years 2000–2018. The results obtained from the generalized method of moments (GMM) show that participation in global value chains has different effects in developed and developing countries regarding carbon emissions. When the level of participation in GVC (global value chain) and FVA (foreign value added) increases, countries’ carbon emissions decrease, and it increases when the DVA (domestic value added) level increases. As a result, in particular, developing countries should green their production methods, and for this purpose, financial support mechanisms should be established.

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  AtıfScopus8·WoS4·OpenAlex7

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/munzur/6310
  Afrika Kıtası Serbest Ticaret Alanı: Türkiye Açısından Dış Ticarette Potansiyel Barındırıyor Mu?

  Ates, Erdem

  Afrika Kıtası Serbest Ticaret Alanı (AFCFTA) 2018 yılında kurulmuş, günümüzde 55 üyesi olan ve neredeyse tüm Afrika ülkelerini kapsayan bir serbest ticaret anlaşmasıdır. AFCFTA, dünyanın en fazla üyesi olan serbest ticaret bölgesidir. Anlaşmanın amacı; Afrika kıtasında tek bir ticaret alanı oluşturarak ticaret yoluyla kıtanın ekonomik potansiyelinin tam olarak ortaya çıkartılmasıdır. Cumhuriyet döneminde bölgenin sömürgeleştirilmiş olması ve sonrasında Soğuk Savaş konjonktürü nedeniyle Türkiye ile Afrika ülkelerinin diplomatik ve ticareti bağları zayıf kalmıştır. Türkiye’nin Afrika kıtasına yaklaşımı 1998 yılında kabul edilen “Afrika Eylem Planı” ile değişmiş ve hem diplomatik hem de ticari ilişkiler artmaya başlamıştır. Türkiye 2005 yılında Afrika Birliği’nde gözlemci, 2008 yılında ise stratejik ortak unvanı almıştır. Bunun bir yansıması olarak, günümüzde Türkiye ile Afrika ülkelerinin ticari bağları hızla artmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı; Orta Vadeli Program (2023-2025) ve 2023 Türkiye İhracat Stratejisi ve Eylem Planlarında özel vurgu yapılmış olan Afrika kıtasında yürürlüğe girmiş olan AFCFTA ile Türkiye’nin ticari bağlarını incelemektir. Çalışmada 2014-2023 dönemi Türkiye ile AFCFTA ülkelerinin ticari ilişkileri ihracat, ithalat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım verileriyle yıllık olarak incelenmiş ve Ticarette İki Yanlı (Bilateral) Yoğunlaşma ve İhracat ve İthalatta Sektörel İki Yanlı (Bilateral) Ticaret Yoğunlaşma Endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, anlaşma ülkeleri ile Türkiye’nin ticari bağlarının kuvvetlenmesi, Türkiye’nin dış ticarette ülke çeşitlendirmesi yapmasına ve enerji, hammadde ve gıda güvenliğini artırmasına yardım edeceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

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  AtıfOpenAlex4·TR Dizin1

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ4/r/munzur/2051
  Comparative And Dynamic Analysis of Türkiye's Competitiveness in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles; [İnsansız Hava Araçlarında Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücünün Karşılaştırmalı ve Dinamik Analizi]

  Aydin, Üzeyir; Ateş, Erdem; Öztürk, Hasan

  The study aims to determine the competitiveness of Türkiye’s UAV exports in a dynamic framework. The analysis used data from the first 20 countries with the largest share in the production and trade of products designated as UAVs by the Harmonic System six-digit and by the European Commission for 2012-2021. Within the scope of the study, it is determined that some countries have high competitiveness in 4 product groups examined with five different foreign trade indexes. It is concluded that Türkiye has strategic and dynamic superiority in two of the four product groups.

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  AtıfOpenAlex2·TR Dizin1

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ3/r/munzur/1889
  The Effect of Earthquakes on International Trade: The Example of the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes; [Depremlerin Uluslararasi Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremleri Örneǧi]

  Ates, Erdem

  On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes occurred in Kahramanmaraş province, which are among the largest earthquakes in the history of Türkiye. The purpose of the study is to determine how these earthquakes affected the exports and imports of the region. In the study, export and import data of Türkiye and 11 provinces declared as earthquake zones were used monthly for the period from January 2021 to December 2023. In the study, the foreign trade data of the region were first examined descriptively and then with the Bai and Perron test to determine whether the earthquake caused a structural break. As a result, it was determined that the earthquakes caused a structural break in both exports and imports. After the earthquakes, exports quickly returned to their pre-earthquake levels, but a similar recovery was not observed in imports.

  AtıfScopus6·OpenAlex10·TR Dizin6

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2023/r/munzur/6415
  Türk Savunma Sanayinin İhracat Rekabet Gücünün Belirlenmesi

  Ates, Erdem

  İç ve dış güvenliğin sağlanması, egemen bir devletin en temel işlevidir. Savunma sanayi sektörü, bir ülkede güvenlik hizmetinin sağlanması için gerekli olan her türlü araç ve gereç üretimiyle uğraşan sanayi kolu olarak tanımlanabilir. Osmanlı Devleti’nin son dönemlerinde başlamakla birlikte, özellikle Cumhuriyetin ilk yıllarında Türkiye, yerli ve milli savunma sanayini kurma yönünde adımlar atmıştır. Türkiye’nin 1952’de NATO üyesi olması ile birlikte, gerekli donanımlar büyük oranda dış kaynaklardan sağlanmaya başlanmıştır. İlerleyen dönemlerde Johnson Mektubu olayı ve 1974 yılında gerçekleştirilen Kıbrıs Barış Harekâtı sonrasında NATO müttefiki olan ABD’nin Türkiye’ye askeri malzeme ambargosu koyması olayları yaşanmıştır. Bu olaylar Türkiye’nin yerli ve milli savunma sanayine sahip olması gerekliliğini ortaya çıkartmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı; Türk savunma sanayi ihracatının rekabet gücünü analiz etmektir. Analizde, 2000-2020 yılları arasında SITC Rev3 5digit(hane) verileri kullanılmıştır. Analizde; savunma sanayi ile bağlantılı 15 adet ürün ve ürün grupları kullanılmıştır. Bu ürün ve ürün grupları ile Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlük Endeksleri (Balassa Endeksleri), Açıklanmış Rekabet Üstünlüğü Endeksleri(Vollrath Endeksleri) ve İhracatta Uzmanlaşma Endeksi (ES) hesaplanmıştır. Sonuç olarak; Türkiye’nin savunma sanayinde dışa bağımlılığının azaldığı ve ihracat yoluyla dünya savunma sanayi ürün pazarından daha yüksek pay almaya başladığı belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca 89114, 89122, 89123, 89131, 89139, 89193 nolu ürün gruplarında Türkiye’nin ihracat rekabet gücünün bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.

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  AtıfOpenAlex3·TR Dizin1

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