Geoeconomic dependency in selected rare-earth metals and compounds: A product-level trade network analysis

This study examines trade concentration, network structure, and China-centered import dependency in three selected rare-earth metal and compound categories (HS 280530, HS 284610, and HS 284690) over 2012–2024. Using bilateral trade data from the CEPII BACI database, the analysis combines concentration ratios and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index with bilateral trade-flow networks, centrality measures, cosine-similarity networks, and country-level China Import Dependency Ratios (CID). The results reveal substantial product-level heterogeneity. Trade concentration and network structure evolve differently across the three categories, while changes in similarity-network density, community structure, and modularity are particularly pronounced for HS 284690. Trade shares and network centrality do not always move in parallel, indicating that market concentration and structural network position capture distinct dimensions of trade organization. Country-level dependency analysis further shows increasing reliance on China across all three product categories: both mean CID and the share of importing countries sourcing at least 50% of their imports from China increase between 2012 and 2024. Overall, the findings demonstrate the value of integrating concentration, network, and dependency measures to identify product-specific patterns of geoeconomic exposure in selected rare-earth metals and compounds.