Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2020Scopus SJRQ3An exhaustive review and analysis on applications of statistical forecasting in hospital emergency departments
Gul, Muhammet; Celik, Erkan
Emergency departments (EDs) provide medical treatment for a broad spectrum of illnesses and injuries to patients who arrive at all hours of the day. The quality and efficient delivery of health care in EDs are associated with a number of factors, such as patient overall length of stay (LOS) and admission, prompt ambulance diversion, quick and accurate triage, nurse and physician assessment, diagnostic and laboratory services, consultations and treatment. One of the most important ways to plan the healthcare delivery efficiently is to make forecasts of ED processes. The aim this study is thus to provide an exhaustive review for ED stakeholders interested in applying forecasting methods to their ED processes. A categorisation, analysis and interpretation of 102 papers is performed for review. This exhaustive review provides an insight for researchers and practitioners about forecasting in EDs in terms of showing current state and potential areas for future attempts.
AtıfScopus63WoS54OpenAlex80
İncele - BildiriYalnız künye2020A risk assessment approach using both stochastic data and subjective judgments
Mete, Suleyman; Oz, Nurdan Ece; Gul, Muhammet; Serin, Faruk; Celik, Erkan; Kahraman, C.; Cevik Onar, S.; Oztaysi, B.; Sari, I.U.; Cebi, S.
Risk assessment describes the overall process regarding identifying hazards and risk factors that have the potential to cause harm, analyzing and evaluating the risk associated with that hazard and determining appropriate ways to eliminate the hazard or control the risk. In the literature, lots of approaches are proposed to prioritize hazards and associated risks quantitatively. Fuzzy sets-based multi-criteria decision-making approaches are forefront that they have the ability in expressing the risks verbally based on decision-maker’s opinions and judgments. MCDA-based risk assessment approaches explain different types of uncertainties, which are generally modeled using stochastic analysis or fuzzy sets. The stochastic analysis is more suitable in modelling the probabilistic uncertainty. Therefore, in this study, a risk assessment approach using both stochastic data and subjective judgments is proposed, and a case study is also performed in a construction project. The VIKOR method is extended and a new risk assessment approach is developed where part of the data is stochastic. A three-year data is used to determine a fitted probability distribution of respected frequency. Evaluation of risks with respect to severity and probability parameters are then made by subjective judgments. In conclusion, a risk prioritization and potential action plan suggestion is performed.
AtıfScopus2OpenAlex3İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2020Scopus SJRQ2A multi-method patient arrival forecasting outline for hospital emergency departments
Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet; Celik, Erkan
Patient arrivals at the emergency department (ED) of hospitals has an unpredictable behavior. So that, adequate forecasting of this process can serve a management baseline to better allocate ED human resources and medical equipment. In this paper, a multi-method patient arrival forecasting outline for EDs is developed. The methods followed within this study include single methods as linear regression (LR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), exponential smoothing and hybrid methods as ARIMA–ANN and ARIMA-LR. As the subject of the study, a private hospital ED case in Turkey is carried out. Data of ED patient arrivals for the year of 2016 was used to set up models. Forecasting performance of the multi-method outline was measured using mean absolute percentage error. The ARIMA–ANN hybrid model is shown to outperform in terms of forecasting accuracy. In order to contribute to the current knowledge, this paper is a novel attempt of applying these methods to model ED patient arrivals and making an overall assessment among them. The results can be used to aid in strategic decision-making on ED staffing and scheduling policy planning in response to predictable arrival variations.
AtıfScopus29WoS26OpenAlex37İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2020Scopus SJRQ3A fuzzy-based occupational health and safety risk assessment framework and a case study in an international port authority
Gul, Muhammet
Ports are complex systems that play a crucial role in the transportation of maritime-related products and services. Since ports face various safety issues in design, installation, operation and maintenance processes, there are many aspects open for improvement in Occupational Health and Safety risk assessment and it is required to deal with risks, reduce them to an acceptable level and control. To struggle with emerging risks and manage this process better, a risk assessment framework is proposed for ports in this study. A case study is performed in a Turkish international port authority using the proposed framework. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), which is a commonly used fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method, was used in weighting two risk factors: likelihood and severity. The orders of priority of hazards were then determined by a fuzzy-based VIKOR method based on the output of FAHP. The proposed framework overcomes some drawbacks, including a lack of assignment on the weight to two risk assessment factors and lack of the high dependence of the prioritisation on the experts’ opinions. To validate the results, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. In conclusion, the study contributes to the applicability of the proposed framework to assess the risks in ports and provides a distinct risk prioritisation.
AtıfScopus43WoS39OpenAlex49İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2020Scopus SJRQ1Evaluating occupational health and safety service quality by SERVQUAL: a field survey study
Demir, Pelin; Gul, Muhammet; Guneri, Ali Fuat
The adverse impact of occupational accidents and occupational diseases on the society have recently increased a lot since the industrial-oriented society is getting more and more widespread. Although attempts regarding occupational health and safety (OHS) increase in Turkey, they are still at an inadequate level. OHS experts prepare employees for a healthy and safer working environment, so that work accidents can be eliminated and employees can be healthy psychologically and physically. At the same time, the worksites can be prevented from being financially damaged and productivity can be improved. The aim of this study is to measure OHS service quality by the evaluations of OHS experts from various sectors and workplaces. In this way, the OHS performance is measured, the difference between perceptions and expectations of the OHS experts is determined and deficiencies are revealed. In the study, the OHS activities are examined in five dimensions using the SERVQUAL scale; tangibility, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy. The questionnaire is carried out using a Likert-type five-point scale among 81 OHS experts from different sectors. In conclusion, SERVQUAL analysis is introduced as a useful tool for employers to better understand what they need to know about OHS services.
AtıfScopus20WoS15OpenAlex26İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2019AHP–TOPSIS integration extended with Pythagorean fuzzy sets for information security risk analysis
Ak, M. Fatih; Gul, Muhammet
Risk analysis (RA) contains several methodologies that object to ensure the protection and safety of occupational stakeholders. Multi attribute decision-making (MADM) is one of the most important RA methodologies that is applied to several areas from manufacturing to information technology. With the widespread use of computer networks and the Internet, information security has become very important. Information security is vital as institutions are mostly dependent on information, technology, and systems. This requires a comprehensive and effective implementation of information security RA. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are commonly used MADM methods and recently used for RA. In this study, a new RA methodology is proposed based on AHP–TOPSIS integration extended with Pythagorean fuzzy sets. AHP strengthened by interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy numbers is used to weigh risk parameters with expert judgment. Then, TOPSIS with Pythagorean fuzzy numbers is used to prioritize previously identified risks. A comparison of the proposed approach with three approaches (classical RA method, Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR and Pythagorean fuzzy MOORA) is also provided. To illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed approach, a case study for information security RA in corrugated cardboard sector is executed.
AtıfScopus152WoS128OpenAlex167İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ1Measuring development levels of NUTS-2 regions in Turkey based on capabilities approach and multi-criteria decision-making
Ozdemir, Yasal; Gul, Muhammet
Regional development seeks to better understand the issues and problems facing the regions because of the contemporary economic and social changes, including the formulation of territorial policies accordingly. In Turkey, in order to coordinate regional development, 26 regional development agencies were founded relating to the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics-2 (NUTS-2) regions. Since these regions have different development levels, it is useful for stakeholders to determine performance measures related to the regional development and propose a ranking model among these regions to provide a balance in delivering financial support mechanisms. Therefore, in this study, an iterative multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model is proposed. Firstly, Pythagorean Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (PFAHP) is used to assign weights to indicators of well-being index for provinces (WiP) in Turkey. Then, a TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multiple attribute decision making) based ranking model for 26 regions was applied. Also, this model takes capabilities and well-being approach into account differently from traditional utilitarian development models which take only some macro-economic and financial parameters. In order to do this, the model uses data from WiP. On conclusion, a comparative ranking projection with two other MCDM methods and WiP is provided and an effective and broader point of view was gained by the regional development performance measuring model.
AtıfScopus31WoS25OpenAlex34İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ2Risk assessment for clearing and grading process of a natural gas pipeline project: An extended TOPSIS model with Pythagorean fuzzy sets for prioritizing hazards
Oz, Nurdan Ece; Mete, Suleyman; Serin, Faruk; Gul, Muhammet
A natural gas pipeline project is a broad construction system consisting of both offshore and onshore section, which aims to supply the natural gas to one country to another. In such these projects, main focus of the works should cover workplace, environment, health, and safety of workers and employers. To achieve this, a new occupational health and safety (OHS) risk assessment is necessary for reducing the negative effects of emerged risks. In this article, a fuzzy-based risk model is developed for prioritizing primary and residual risk. A two-dimensional (2D) risk matrix method is initially performed and the Pythagorean fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (PFTOPSIS) method is then used to prioritize previously identified hazards. For the prioritization of primary and residual risks, hazards are assessed against two parameters (probability and severity) of 2D risk matrix. Unlike previous risk assessment studies, PFTOPSIS is applied for the first time. The fuzzy model is applied to a case study for clearing and grading process of a natural gas pipeline project. A sensitivity analysis is also performed on parameter weights in order to validate the model.
AtıfScopus93WoS80OpenAlex97İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ1A decision-support system based on Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR for occupational risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline construction
Mete, Suleyman; Serin, Faruk; Oz, Nurdan Ece; Gul, Muhammet
Natural gas pipeline construction projects are major projects between countries that include onshore and offshore sections. Aim of these projects is to supply the natural gas from one place to another. Safety of workplace, environment and employers is also another important argument. In this respect, it is essential to conduct an occupational risk assessment (ORA) study to eliminate the risks that may arise around the pipeline. Application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for the ORA has shown great increase recently. Also, developing a decision support system (DSS) which is easy to use and capable of extracting results enables decision makers to assess health and safety risks. Therefore, (i) A DSS based on Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR (PFVIKOR) in ORA literature is developed for the first time; (ii) A case study is employed to risk assessment for trenchless crossings installation by auger boring process of the pipeline project; (iii) A sensitivity analysis is performed in the results of PFVIKOR-based DSS; and (iv) Two additional risk parameters called sensitivity to PPE non-utilization and undetectability are considered in ORA process apart from the classical risk assessment parameters of severity and probability. Developing such a DSS and applying it for risk assessment in a natural gas pipeline construction will contribute stakeholders in the energy industry.
AtıfScopus89WoS67OpenAlex83İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ3Emergency department ergonomic design evaluation: A case study using fuzzy DEMATEL-focused two-stage methodology
Gul, Muhammet
Objectives: An emergency department (ED) is a unit of a hospital that is designed, staffed, and equipped to treat injured people and those afflicted with sudden and severe illness. Evaluation of ergonomic design of these departments with respect to specific criteria/standards is expected to contribute to the improvement of productivity and service quality since EDs have too much complexity and volume in the patient flow. Therefore, this paper proposes a two-stage methodology for evaluation of ED ergonomic design. Methods: The first stage provides a check-list with 137 items on six main headings to evaluate the ergonomics of ED physical design with the opinions of medical staff. The second stage offers a fuzzy-based cause and effect decision-making model for the decreased items assessed in the first stage. In this stage, a fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) is used since the decision-making process involves the vagueness of human judgments. Results: Considering the interdependence among items, proposed FDEMATEL reflects the causal relationships among criteria through a cause-effect relationship diagram. A case study was carried out at a training and research hospital ED in Istanbul, Turkey. Conclusion: In conclusion, several suggestions are offered that the ED needs interventions on accessibility, patient and personnel accommodations, and personnel privacy.
AtıfScopus19WoS18OpenAlex20İncele - Derleme MakaleAçık Erişim2019Stochastic multi-criteria decision-making: an overview to methods and applications
Celik, Erkan; Gul, Muhammet; Yucesan, Melih; Mete, Suleyman
Background: The alternatives selection problem with multi-criteria in stochastic form variables is called as stochastic multi-criteria decision-making. The stochasticity of the criteria is considered using stochastic dominance, prospect theory, and regret theory. Main text: In this paper, a total 61 papers are reviewed and analyzed based on method(s) used in stochastic multi-criteria decision-making problem, method used in stochasticity, specific objective, application area, and so on classification. All papers with respect to classification aspects are examined their real or empirical applications. Moreover, the studies are statistically investigated to present the latest trends of stochastic multi-criteria decision-making. Conclusions: This detailed review study ensures a comprehension for researchers on stochastic multi-criteria decision-making in respect of showing up-to-date literature and potential research areas to be concentrated in the future. It is observed that the stochastic multi-criteria decision-making problem has an attractive approach by researchers.
AtıfScopus19WoS15OpenAlex19İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ1Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR-based approach for safety risk assessment in mine industry
Gul, Muhammet; Ak, M. Fatih; Guneri, Ali Fuat
Introduction: Underground mining is considered one of the most hazardous industries and is often associated with serious work-related fatalities; this paper addresses job-related hazards and associated risks. Method: A risk assessment approach is proposed (Pythagorean fuzzy environment) and a case study is carried out in an underground copper and zinc mine. Results: Results of the study demonstrate that hazards can be categorized into different risk levels via compromised solutions of the fuzzy approach. Conclusion: The study provides a theoretical contribution by suggesting a Pythagorean fuzzy numbers-based VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (PFVIKOR) approach. Moreover, it contributes to improving overall safety levels of underground mining by considering and advising on the potential hazards of risk management. Practical applications: The proposed approach will improve the existing safety risk assessment mechanism in underground copper and zinc mining.
AtıfScopus184WoS156OpenAlex180İncele - MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2019Scopus SJRQ3An integrated best-worst and interval type-2 fuzzy TOPSIS methodology for green supplier selection
Yucesan, Melih; Mete, Suleyman; Serin, Faruk; Celik, Erkan; Gul, Muhammet
Supplier selection is one of the most important multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems for decision-makers in the competitive market. Today's organizations are seeking new ways to reduce the negative effects they have on the environment and to achieve a greener system. Currently, the concept of green supplier selection has gained great importance for its ability to incorporate environmental or green criteria into classical supplier selection practices. Therefore, in this study, a multi-phase MCDM model based on the best-worst method (BWM) and the interval type-2 fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (IT2F TOPSIS) is proposed. A case study in a plastic injection molding facility in Turkey was carried out to show the applicability of the proposed integrated methodology. The paper offers insights into decision-making, methodology, and managerial implications. Results of the case study are examined and suggestions for future research are provided.
AtıfScopus93WoS85OpenAlex98İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Prediction of maximum relative out-of- plane displacement of infill wall exposed to shake table by using artificial neural network models
Gul, Muhammet; Onat, Onur
This paper aims to present forecasting of relative out-of-plane displacement, failure mode and failure limit of reinforced concrete frame enclosure with infill wall by artificial neural network (ANN) models. For this purpose, two shake table experiment test results were evaluated. Model-I is unreinforced brick model and Model-II is composed of infill wall with bed joint reinforcement. After a certain acceleration level, accelerometers are detached from the cracked wall surface in order not to be damaged. These instrument detachments cause data missing. Missing relative maximum out-of-plane displacements were predicted by ANN models. Moreover, failure of infill wall through out-of-plane direction is also predicted at 0,79g acceleration level for both models (Model-I and Model-II). This study proves that ANN based procedure predict robust results to estimate missing experimental data
- MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ1A new Fine-Kinney-based risk assessment framework using FAHP-FVIKOR incorporation
Gul, Muhammet; Guven, Busra; Guneri, Ali Fuat
The most crucial step of a risk assessment process that follows identifying the scope of assessment and hazards is the initial risk assessment, particularly with a risk scoring system. The Fine–Kinney method is a comprehensive method for quantitative evaluations to aid in controlling hazards. In this risk assessment method, the risk value is calculated by considering the parameters of the consequence of an accident (C), the exposure or frequency of occurrence of a hazard event that could lead to an accident (E) and the probability of a hazardous event (P). The classical Fine–Kinney method has a limitation in that it assigns an equal weight to these three parameters. Therefore, we propose a new risk assessment method incorporating a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) with fuzzy VIKOR (FVIKOR). FAHP was used in weighting these risk parameters derived from the Fine–Kinney method. The priority orders of hazards were determined by a FVIKOR method. The proposed method enables group decision-making in assessing hazards and uses relative importance among three risk parameters by pair-wise comparison of Buckley's FAHP. Owing to the difficulty in evaluating C, E and P, linguistic terms are used in the proposed method. In addition, a case study of the evaluation of risks in the arms industry is used to illustrate the proposed method. A comparison with the classical method and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity of an ideal solution (FTOPSIS) is discussed. The results show that the proposed method is effective in helping stakeholders to determine the risk control policies to validate the effectiveness of their risk controls.
AtıfScopus106WoS84OpenAlex124İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2018Scopus SJRQ3Performance comparison between ARIMAX, ANN and ARIMAX-ANN hybridization in sales forecasting for furniture industry; [Usporedba performansi modela ARIMAX, ANN i hibridizacije ARIMAX-ANN u predviđanju prodaje za industriju namještaja]
Yucesan, Melih; Gul, Muhammet; Celik, Erkan
Manufacturing firms aim to increase their profits and reduce costs in a competitive and rapidly changing market. One of the most important ways to reach these goals is to forecast sales correctly. Furniture manufacturing, which is considered a prosperous and growing industry in Turkey, has an increasing trend related to the growth in construction and associated industries, increase in urban migration and increase in per capita income. Accuracy of sales forecasting in furniture industry is affected by external factors, such as consumer confidence index, producer price index, month of the year and number of vacation days as well as the time factor itself. This study aims to develop an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with external variables (ARIMAX) to forecast the total monthly sales of furniture products of a well-known manufacturer in Turkey. As a follow up study, a performance comparison between ARIMAX, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and ARIMAX-ANN hybridization is performed. In conclusion, results of performance measures demonstrate that hybrid model developed for each amount of product sales give better accuracy values than single methods. Overall, it is proved that using the ARI-MAX and hybridization of this method with ANN are applicable for forecasting monthly sales of furniture products.
AtıfScopus7WoS5OpenAlex20İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ2Fuzzy rule-based Fine–Kinney risk assessment approach for rail transportation systems
Gul, Muhammet; Celik, Erkan
Rail transportation is one of the most crucial public transportation types for big and crowded cities. In rail transportation systems, stakeholders face serious issues involved in workshops, stations, lines and their environments, and general office buildings. In order to reach an increased awareness and better occupational health and safety (OHS) management, a new risk assessment approach is proposed in this study. This approach includes a combination of Fine–Kinney method and a fuzzy rule-based expert system. It captures nonlinear causal relationships between Fine–Kinney parameters. Since there is a high level of vagueness involved in the OHS risk assessment data, the rule-based expert system is developed for probability (P), exposure (E), and consequence (C) for evaluating risk score. A case study is carried out in a rail transportation system in Istanbul/Turkey, and a comparison with the classical Fine–Kinney method is discussed. Results of the case study reveal risk clusters and corresponding control measures that should be taken into consideration. The study methodologically contributes to risk assessment in the knowledge, while case study in a real rail transportation system offers an insight into public transport industry in safety improvement.
AtıfScopus81WoS71OpenAlex86İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ1Application of Artificial Neural Networks to the prediction of out-of-plane response of infill walls subjected to shake table
Onat, Onur; Gul, Muhammet
The main purpose of this paper is to predict missing absolute out-of-plane displacements and failure limits of infill walls by artificial neural network (ANN) models. For this purpose, two shake table experiments are performed. These experiments are conducted on a 1:1 scale one-bay one-story reinforced concrete frame (RCF) with an infill wall. One of the experimental models is composed of unreinforced brick model (URB) enclosures with an RCF and other is composed of an infill wall with bed joint reinforcement (BJR) enclosures with an RCF. An artificial earthquake load is applied with four acceleration levels to the URB model and with five acceleration levels to the BJR model. After a certain acceleration level, the accelerometers are detached from the wall to prevent damage to them. The removal of these instruments results in missing data. The missing absolute maximum out-of-plane displacements are predicted with ANN models. Failure of the infill wall in the out-of-plane direction is also predicted at the 0.79g acceleration level. An accuracy of 99% is obtained for the available data. In addition, a benchmark analysis with multiple regressionis performed. This study validates that the ANN-based procedure estimates missing experimental data more accurately than multiple regression models.
AtıfScopus33WoS29OpenAlex14İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ1A comparative outline for quantifying risk ratings in occupational health and safety risk assessment
Gul, Muhammet; Ak, M. Fatih
The concept of risk assessment has been introduced as an examination of safety in the workplace to enable assessments as to whether sufficient precautions have been taken or if more should be done to prevent potential harm. Hazardous industries have faced serious fatalities related to work, workplaces, and workers as a consequence of their high-risk processes. Therefore, in this work, a novel and comparative methodology for quantifying risk ratings in occupational health and safety risk assessment is proposed. A 5 × 5 risk matrix is initially determined, and the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method is then applied to rank identified hazards. As a novelty to the knowledge, two parameters of the 5 × 5 matrix method, likelihood and severity, are subjectively assessed by occupational health and safety experts, and then importance levels for these parameters are determined using the Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (PFAHP). In the proposed approach, analysts use linguistic terms and Pythagorean fuzzy sets, which provide greater independence in their evaluations. An outline that enables comparison of the results of this study with the circumcenter of centroids method and the fuzzy AHP-fuzzy VIKOR integrated method in quantifying risk ratings is also provided. In order to present the practicality of this work, a case study in an underground copper and zinc mine is carried out.
AtıfScopus194WoS153OpenAlex211İncele - Derleme MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ2A review of occupational health and safety risk assessment approaches based on multi-criteria decision-making methods and their fuzzy versions
Gul, Muhammet
Occupational health and safety (OHS) is a multidisciplinary activity working under the tasks of protection of workers and worksites. Risk assessment, as a compulsory process in implementation of OHS, stands out as evaluating the risks arising from the hazards, taking into account the required control measures, and deciding whether or not the risks can be reduced to an acceptable level. The diversity in risk assessment approaches is such that there are many methods for any industry. Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM)-based approaches contribute to risk assessment knowledge with their ability on solving real-world problems with multiple, conflicting, and incommensurate criteria. This article conducts a critical state-of-the-art review of OHS risk assessment studies using MCDM-based approaches. Additionally, it includes fuzzy versions of MCDM approaches applied to OHS risk assessment. A total of 80 papers are classified in eight different application areas. The papers are reviewed by the points of publication trend, published journal, risk parameters/factors, and tools used. This critical review provides an insight for researchers and practitioners on MCDM-based OHS risk assessment approaches in terms of showing current state and potential areas for attempts to be focused in the future.
AtıfScopus181WoS144OpenAlex189İncele
